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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (26767)	10/12/2004 12:07:04 PM
From: amoezzi	Respond to of 60323

You can get a 1 GB flash for under $55 at TigerDirect.com.

To: slacker711 who wrote (26767)	10/12/2004 12:24:04 PM
From: Pam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Hi Slacker, The reason for a huge decline in T-flash is because the cost to SNDK on these cards is very little (implying GM very high) and SNDK knows that these cards are going to get obsolete very soon (just like my 32/64/128MB cards did) so why not entice customers into buying something that they will endup replacing in the coming quarters anyway? Sandisk may say that they want to sell "Shoot and Store" as consumables, but deep down the idea is to make everything consumable (and obsolete-able if there is such a word!) else down the road there will be very little growth in revenues. I agree, Sandisk will license this to other companies (and collect lic fees and royalties :-)). If you have heard Eli, I love the way he says "open competeshion" in his conf calls! -Pam

To: slacker711 who wrote (26767)	10/12/2004 2:17:52 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Either we are going to be very right about how the NAND flash market is going to play out....or we are going to be painfully wrong. I dont think that even the analysts with sell ratings are counting on a 60-70% decline in pricing next year. Message 20632262 'Gunfight at the OK Corral' and shakeout expected in flash-memory market By Mark LaPedus Silicon Strategies 10/12/2004, 1:09 PM ET SAN JOSE, Calif. — Not long ago, there were serious product shortages and stunning growth in the booming flash-memory market. Now, the business is turning into a "gunfight" in the tradition of the old Wild West. Average selling prices (ASPs) for products are projected to decline by up to 70 percent over the next year, said Jim Cantore, president of JLC Associates Inc. (San Jose), a market research and consulting firm. And the flash market — which boasts a total of 11 or so suppliers #&151 is also ripe for a major shakeout, Cantore said. "Does the market need that many suppliers?" he said. "I see a shakeout at the high density market." The analyst also projected a "two-year slump" in flash memories, due to a decline in digital camera shipments and flat growth for cellular phones. Compounding the price pressures are a new set of competitors that are entering the fray, including Hynix, Infineon, STMicroelectronics, among others. "What I see in the market is a 'Gunfight at the OK Corral' for the next two years," he said, referring to the famous Western gunfight in Tombstone, Ariz. back in 1881. "The number of flash units will go up," he said, "but ASPs will fall hard and fast next year and the following year." ASPs for NOR-based flash memories are projected to fall 20-to-25 percent in 2005 over 2004, he said. ASPs for NAND-based chips are expected to decline a whopping 60-to-70 percent next year, he said. In total, the flash-memory market hit $16 billion in 2004, according to JLC. Of that, some $9.9 billion represented the NOR market, while the remaining portion was NAND, according to the firm. The flash-memory business now appears to be cooling down, as Semico Research Corp. last month lowered its forecast for the industry in 2004, with flat growth seen for 2005 (see Sept. 9 story).