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To: mishedlo who wrote (19836)	10/12/2004 12:06:57 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

It will interesting to see if they actually harvest (in the US) that much, of this "estimate" ? Meanwhile, can Brazil afford to use scarce transportation and port space for $2.00 corn, and $5.00 soybeans? PORT CONGESTION HITS PDM AND VITORIA 11-10-2004 A surge in export activity from Brazil has led to increased port congestion, according to Metal Bulletin. Orders for pig iron exports from Vitoria are only being taken for shipment from May or June of next year, while orders for pig iron shipments from Ponta da Madeira can only be realised in April 2005. A lack of spare rail capacity is further complicating matters.

To: mishedlo who wrote (19836)	10/12/2004 1:33:45 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

If these "estimates" are translated into actual harvest, then of course the US ending corn stocks are relatively high (they've been much higher though, so $2.00 seems absurd). cbot.com However, the world ending stocks at 100.68, is still the third lowest in a quarter century cbot.com This key question though going forward to the 2005 crop year, is what's the incentive for farmers to plant $2.00 corn with $8 NG, and dwindling and costly diesel and fertilizer supplies and expenses? Also isn't this a great opportunity for Asians to raid (if they can get the shipping) the food market cheap, and get rid of Old Maid Cards (Dollars)? And can the US count on perfect weather again? Mid-Session Corn Market Report for 10/12/2004 December Corn opened 5 3/4 cents lower on the session at 199 and established an early range of 197 to 199 3/4. The USDA pegged corn production at 11.613 billion bushels as compared with the average trade estimate at 11.217 billion bushels (range 11.059-11.375) and compared with the September estimate of 10.961 billion bushels. The USDA pegged corn ending stocks at 1.691 billion bushels as compared with the average trade estimate at 1.468 billion bushels (range 1.310-1.623) and compared with the September estimate of 1.209 billion bushels. Both production and ending stocks came in above the range of estimates and with an extremely bearish tilt. World corn ending stocks are now pegged at 100.68 million tons from 87.9 million last month and 94.7 million tons last year. Weekly export inspections came in at 34.7 million bushels as compared with trade expectations at 29-34 million bushels. In order to reach the USDA projection for the year, weekly shipments need to average 41.0 million bushels. Wheat/corn spread activity and speculative selling has helped add to the bearish fuel for the session today. Support for December corn comes in at 194 1/2 and 191 and with 202 1/2 and 204 1/2 as resistance.