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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (19839)	10/12/2004 12:28:27 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

bonds or CD's

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (19839)	10/12/2004 12:58:56 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Thoughts anybody on the impact of a China repeg on the Aussie and NZ, or on base metals commodities? I'm thinking it might keep Asia in the Train Wrecking business a bit longer, enabling them to slightly better afford scarfing up all the remaining commodity stocks and supplies? The "strange" trade that might work in a repeg, is the one no one really thinks about: long Yen(commercials are long), short 5 year Treasury (commercials are short). Of course the prior correlation is that the 5 year rallies from BOJ manipulation and intervention, everytime the Yen sneaks it's head up. But if (likely) the Yen follows the rest of Asia and lets the currency float upward against the USD, they (all the Asians) could be largely absent the currency rigging and buying US debt game for awhile. I don't see this trade as especially a bust if there was no repeg either, might be great reward for the risk. If there is no repeg I see Asia busting before year end, if not sooner. If there is, would buy them more time, and some inflation relef (exported back to the US, in a reverse Old Maid Card gambit.)