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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (19860)	10/13/2004 9:31:37 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Commercials are getting even more aggressive on corn. The specs have managed to milk every cent leaning against this crop. Here we still have low ending ending stocks around the world, Message 20632134 and a lot of incentive to plant has been removed, plus now the specs need to get out of their profitable short positions (120,735 futures with options last read). Pre-Opening Corn Market Report for 10/13/2004 The market inched higher in quiet trade overnight in spite of weakness in soybeans and many other commodity markets. The production number was higher than expected, but the trade was not surprised to see a huge production forecast and commercial buyers were active. While funds were noted sellers of nearly 2500 contracts yesterday, commercial firms were noted buyers of close to 7000 contracts. Ideas that the bearish supply news may have peaked with the report helped to support the strong recovery off of the lows. The weekly crop progress report showed that harvest reached 34% by October 10th as compared with 28% as the 14-year average. The bearishness of the supply numbers seem to be cushioned by the huge demand base which seems to be building in corn, the oversold condition of the market going into the report and ideas that the market will need to see another 11 billion bushel crop next year to avoid tightening stocks. A world ending stock figure near 100 million tons is the second lowest in the past 20 years. While closing lower on the session yesterday, the market has the appearance of a spike low, as December corn closed 5 1/2 cents above the lows of the day and also above the opening. The USDA pegged corn production at 11.613 billion bushels as compared with the average trade estimate at 11.217 billion bushels (range 11.059-11.375). The USDA pegged corn ending stocks at 1.691 billion bushels as compared with the average trade estimate at 1.468 (range 1.310-1.623). Both production and ending stocks came in above the range of estimates and with an extremely bearish tilt. World corn ending stocks are now pegged at 100.68 million tons, up from 87.9 million reported last month and 94.7 million tons last year. Weekly export inspections came in at 34.7 million bushels as compared with an average of 41.0 million bushels needed to reach the USDA projection for the year. Wheat/corn spread activity and speculative selling helped pressure the market early, but talk that the corn market was building a huge demand base helped to provide some underlying support. Rains seem to be staying in the central and southern cornbelt ahead of the cold weekend, which might keep harvest progress moving foreword at a near normal pace this week. Gulf basis was higher as exporters are at a busy time of the year and producer selling slowed on the break. Support for December corn comes in at 199 and 197 with 202 1/2 and 204 1/2 as resistance.