Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neeka who wrote (77203)	10/13/2004 4:49:40 PM
From: SBHX	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 793782

If there is one thing history teaches us about mistakes, there are crossroads where even a just cause can become a mistake. It can happen due to the wrong strategy, but it typically happens when you are unwilling to pay the price to make it not become a mistake. I think if Kerry is elected, Iraq will become a mistake, it is entirely consistent with the thought process of an anti-war philosopher-senator such as Kerry that the whole effort is a grand diversion. What will happen next is really up to anybody to guess, but I suspect the first thing is that the Iraqi leadership will probably enmasse suddenly find they have more pressing concerns than try to govern their country --- lets not forget the lessons of Saigon. Allawi is not stupid, and unlike Chalabi, he does not have the Iranians' backing. In the civil war that will follow, the true string pullers will be Syria for the Sunnis and Iran for the Shia. The Kurds in the north will declare independence, and Turkey will have something to say to that. In other words, hundreds of thousands will die, just like in any other civil war in history. That will make Iraq another mistake that will sear the psyche of the american soul for years. It will be another vietnam and the liberal intelligentsia will nod smugly among themselves, "I told you so". But I think the reality is that unlike Vietnam, this time, the islamic Jihadists will have further plans that does not stop there, and the defeat of the US will have dire consequences for many years ahead. If the people who continue to plan and plot cannot be defeated in Iraq, they will have to be fought somewhere else, and since Kerry is unwilling to fight foreign wars (witness JK senate voting record), that leaves fighting an unconventional war on american soil as one very possible scenario. If GWB is elected, Iraq is not necessarily going to be a success, but the path to follow is understood, and the bar for success is simple. Bring a reasonably fair election; train a defense force strong enough to fend for themselves; weaken the insurgents and foreign jihadists enough to make them less effective; let the majority of Iraqis feel they have a stake in their own future. And then, you stay only if the majority of the population asks you to maintain a small presence. This ideal goal is by no means guaranteed, you have to decide if this is a worthy goal to have a long struggle to bring peace and prosperity to that region. So Iraq can still be a mistake like Vietnam or a success like Japan. Which would you prefer?