Since I have been pulled into this I will go ahead and tell you what my crystal ball says. It is still a little cloudy this early.
The least number of electoral votes that Kerry and Bush will get are 153 and 198 respectively.
If the vote breaks strongly in either direction Kerry could get as many a 340 electoral votes and Bush 388 electoral votes.
If things remain as they are today, I predict the likely out come will be Bush 292 electoral votes and Kerry 246 electoral votes.
For Bush to win, he only needs to harvest 72 of the following 187 electoral votes from the following states: ME(4), NH(4), NJ(15), PA(21), OH(20), FL(27), IA(7), MO(11), NV(5), NM(5), OR(7), VA(13), WA(11), WI(10), MN(10), and MI(10). 138 electoral votes are found in states where Bush has an excellent chance of winning: NH, NJ, OH, PA, FL, IA, MO, NV, NM, VA, and WI.
For Kerry to win he must harvest 117 of the same 187 electoral votes listed above. 133 of these electoral votes are found in states where Kerry has an excellent chance of winning: FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NJ, NM, MO, OH, OR, PA, and WA.
Therefore the states (115 electoral votes) that will make or break this election are FL, IA, MO, NV, NH, NJ, NM, OH, and PA.
Bush will most likely win if he gets 39 of the following 115 electoral votes: FL(27), IA(7), MO(11), NV(5), NH(4), NJ(15), NM(5), OH(20), and PA(21).
Kerry will most likely win if he gets 99 electoral votes from this same list.
Therefore, Kerry must carry FL, OH, and PA to have a chance to win. He must also harvest 21 electoral votes from: IA(7), MO(11), NV(5), NH(4), NJ(15), and NM(5).
Bush on the other hand could lose FL, OH, and PA and still win provided he won both MO and NJ along with any 3 of the following: IA, NV, NH, and NM. |
