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To: Pam who wrote (26787)	10/14/2004 9:32:09 AM
From: limtex	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60323

Pam - the thread is quiet and those long time supporters who have commented seem subued if that is the description. My guess is that there has been a blow to confidence and that may take a long time to restore. Best, L

To: Pam who wrote (26787)	10/14/2004 12:15:04 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Samsung to mass produce 8Gbit NAND flash in 4Q 2005 Printer friendly Related stories Comments Email to a friend Latest news Advertisement Hans Wu, Taipei; Jack Lu, DigiTimes.com [Thursday 14 October 2004] Samsung Electronics plans to begin mass production of its multi-level cell (MLC) 8Gbit NAND flash memory in the fourth quarter of next year, according to Kim Il-ung, vice president of Samsung’s memory product group, during an October 12 conference in Taiwan. In September, Samsung announced the 8Gbit chip, designed with 60nm process technology. The company said in a press release that the chip will allow designs of up to 16GB of storage on a single memory card. Samsung expects to launch a 16Gbit MLC NAND flash memory chip in 2007, Kim added. Although worldwide supply may start outpacing demand in the second quarter of next year, Samsung plans to raise wafer-starts for NAND flash to 45,000 12-inch wafers per month, up from 35,000 wafers this quarter, Kim indicated. Samsung had wafer starts of 45,000 12-inch wafers per month in the second quarter, the company said in a June web cast for its second-quarter results. Its first 12-inch fab, Fab 12 ran at a full capacity of 40,000 wafers per month and the new Fab 13 at 5,000 wafers per month. According to local company sources, Samsung forecasts worldwide NAND flash supply will lag demand by 0.9% next quarter but will then outpace demand over the following two quarters as more makers begin shipping. Supply is expected to again trail demand in the fourth quarter of 2005, the sources said. In related news, Kim said Samsung may allocate about US$5 billion for capital expenditure next year, compared to US$4.1 billion this year. Samsung NAND flash supply-and-demand forecast for 2005 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Surplus (shortage) (0.9%) 4.7% 1.6% (2.1%) Source: company, compiled by DigiTimes, October 2004. Related stories DRAMeXchange: DRAM prices to maintain uptrend next week (Oct 13) Samsung's DRAM allocation to also affect NAND-flash supply (Oct 6) DRAMeXchange: DDR and NAND flash pricing gain steam; SDRAM flat (Sep 30) Shortage of SD and MMC memory driver-ICs accelerates in China (Sep 24) Samsung raises 1Gbit and 2Gbit NAND flash prices (Sep 9) Hynix aims to more than double NAND flash output by year-end (Aug 19) Micron may delay 2Gbit NAND flash – company denies, production on track for year-end (Aug 17) My question: is NAND spot price a meaningful indicator?

To: Pam who wrote (26787)	10/14/2004 2:30:42 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Hi Pam, The Smith Barney overall recommendation was on target, but for the wrong reasons. They missed estimates too. I do have a couple of concerns. First, it seems to me that either the drop in prices of flash cards or less than expected sales volume could be explained in part by less consumer disposable income, after paying higher state and local taxes, higher energy costs, and higher health care costs. This could be bad for ALL consumer product companies, especially the chip manufacturers. Second, in reading the earlier responses to your message, I wonder if Samsung is really selling their products at a profit or if they are engaging in predatory pricing in order to run everyone out of the market. In yesterday's conference call, an analyst brought up the fact that he could buy a Lexar 1 gb card for $47! Eli's answer was that if the card sold for only $47, then Lexar was not making any money on that sale. Of course, we know that Lexar cards are made by Samsung, as the two companies have a long term technology sharing relationship. Any thoughts? Art