Kerry Spot - YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU THINK YOU KNOW [10/14 08:40 AM]
You know what? Forget the polls
During my appearance on Hugh Hewitt's radio show last night, the genial host gently criticized the Kerry Spot and NRO's folks in The Corner of being too pessimistic about Bush's chances. Hugh does have a strong case that the opinion polls should be ignored.
And this isn't the typical loser's whine that "the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day." What model are all the current pollsters using for turnout? At least some of them, if not most of them, are using the most recent presidential election. That would be in 2000, when the unions and black churches got turnout close to 100 percent for their core voters. In November 2000, black-voter turnout was at 54.1 percent, up from 50.6 percent in November 1996, according to the Census Bureau. Meanwhile, nationally, voter turnout from union households was 26 percent, which showed an improvement from 23 percent in 1996, according to exit polls.
Meanwhile, we have heard of Karl Rove's lament of the four million evangelical voters who stayed home on Election Day 2000.
In 2002, pollsters used that same turnout model, expecting high turnout among Democrats and disappointing turnout among Republicans. And they got burned by that model.
Let's compare the final polls of 2002 to the final results of 2002 for the major Senate races. These were the states that had the nation's eyes on it, with the polls conducted in late October or even up to the day before Election Day. Pollsters should have been at their best, with every advantage.
Minnesota
In Minnesota, Zogby had Walter Mondale over Coleman by 6 points. The Minneapolis Star had Coleman down 5 in its last poll.
Final: Coleman 50, Mondale 47. Coleman by 3.
Colorado
In Colorado, Zogby had Strickland over Allard by 5 points, but at the end of October he had Strickland by 9. The Rocky Mountain News had Strickland by 4. The Denver Post had Strickland by 1.
Final Allard 51, Strickland 46. Allard by 5.
New Hampshire
In New Hampshire, the Concord Monitor had Democrat Shaheen over Republican Sununu by one, FPC/WNDS-TV had Shaheen by 5, University of New Hampshire had Shaheen by 4, then had Sununu by 1.
Final: Sununu 51, Shaheen 47. Sununu by 4.
Texas
In the Texas Senate race (not that Texas is a swing state) Zogby's final poll had Republican Cornyn over Democrat Kirk by 4 points, and a day earlier had Cornyn up one. The Dallas Morning News had Cornyn up 9, Survey USA had Cornyn up 8.
Final result: Cornyn 55, Kirk 43. Cornyn by 12.
Georgia
In the Georgia Senate race the final four polls were Zogby showing Democrat Cleland up by 2, Zogby showing a tie, Atlanta Journal-Constitution showing Cleland up 3, and Mason-Dixon showing Cleland up 6.
Final result: Not even close. Republican Chambliss 53, Democrat Cleland 46, Chambliss by 7.
North Carolina
In the North Carolina Senate race the final five polls were Zogby showing Republican Dole up by 10; Zogby showing Dole up 6, Carolina Poll showing Dole up 7, Survey USA showing Dole up 4, and Mason-Dixon showing Dole up 6.
Final result: Dole 54, Bowles 45. Dole by 9. Only Zogby's last-second "correction" poll was close.
Iowa
In Iowa, the Des Moines Register had Democrat Harkin with a moderate 9-point lead, but SurveyUSA had Harkin beating Republican Ganske by an overwhelming 22 points.
Final result: Harkin 54, Ganske 44. Harkin by 10.
There are a few exceptions to this rule. In Missouri, the late polls had Talent up by 8, and up by 4. He won 50 percent to 49 percent.
Note that many of these states are swing states this year. Also note that these pollsters were wrong by 8, 9, 10 points, and they were underestimating support for the Republican candidates by 8, 9, 10 points.
The 2002 elections were the first year that Rove and Co. deployed the first prototype of their 72-hour-focused, extensive get-out-the-vote systems. Hewitt said he watched it work in Colorado that year, and he said "it made every union and church operation look like nothing by comparison."
At this point, no one can predict with certainty exactly how many voters are going to show up. Liberal groups are patting themselves on the back, expecting a tsunami of first-time voters, as angry as they are about Bush, to be showing up at the polls Nov. 2.
Of course, this "massive turnout" theory has a few hitches. One of them is whether in this ugly year of back-and-forth attacks, when a Tennessee Democrat distributes flyers calling Bush supporters "retarded," will voters want to partake in this ugly, divisive, nasty process? Two, how many of these casual, first-time, somewhat motivated voters will see the long lines on Election Day...and say, 'eh, it's not worth the wait?'
Either way, use proper skepticism when reading these polls.
WRAPUP [10/13 10:33 PM]
John Kerry came across as an old, tired, worn out, stretched-out Leftist Tree Spirit belched forth by the fiery pits of Massachusetts liberalism. Despite citing Ronald Reagan so frequently that one might think he had a nervous tic, his answers made clear that a President Kerry would chart the country on a course further to the left than Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, and LBJ. We know what we’ve got in George W. Bush. Conservative most of the time, moderate when he doesn’t have the votes; a guy who may make mistakes, but you’ll always know where he stands.
More thoughts: Bob Schieffer ought to be pelted with eggs and rotten fruit. Terrible questions - when they weren’t biased, they were boring. The closer about the women in their lives was lame.
Bush wasn’t perfect, but he was solid - there was no question that he missed, and he really seemed to keep jabbing at Kerry, painting Kerry as a tax hiker, a big-government liberal, a creature of limited accomplishments in the Senate. Bush was confident, Kerry looked exhausted. Did he spend the day visiting hurricane victims or something?
Hasn’t he been off the trail for like, 72 hours? What, was he up late watching Edwards on Jay Leno?
A BIT MORE: Tim Russert notices that Kerry never went back on the attack when Bush called him out of the mainstream. Kerry never called Bush far-right, or arch-conservative, etc.
Bill Kristol is revved, saying Kerry didn’t win one question.
An e-mailer who Tivo-ed this debate claims By the time of the "you will unite America like W promised but failed to do, won't you" question, the two ladies on the moderator's right and left elbows were visibly falling asleep. |
