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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dawgfan2000 who wrote (13471)	10/14/2004 8:35:22 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Hoisington Quarterly review A complete breath of fresh air compared to all the bond bears running around hoisingtonmgt.com Mish

To: dawgfan2000 who wrote (13471)	10/14/2004 8:42:12 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Greenspan on Gold Message 20643186

To: dawgfan2000 who wrote (13471)	10/14/2004 8:48:32 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Heinz on the market Date: Thu Oct 14 2004 18:51 trotsky (Apollo@consumer) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved as you may have noticed, i've more than once predicted that the next big event in this secular downturn will be a consumer recession - a hefty one. i expected this even before oil prices soared, on account of my conviction that the real estate and mortgage credit bubble would eventually falter - regardless of the level of interest rates. the sharp price rises in commodities, esp. oil, only serve to hasten the process and ensure that it will be extraordinarily painful ( although you probably won't notice in the government's massaged-to-death economic statistics - but the stock market will tell the tale, as it did in the '00 to '02 downleg ) . by the way, the signs of the RE bubble's likely imminent demise are now unmistakable imo - anecdotal as well as hard evidence ( the former concerns price declines in 'hot' areas, the latter concerns inventories of unsold homes on the market ) point to the fact that this thing is teetering on the precipice right here. interesting times coming, as they say. trotsky (Apollo@oil) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved yes, it's getting scary. we're already way beyond the level of prices that were the harbinger of the last recession ( the $37 high in '00 ) , and as you say, the market seems to be pricing in future supply problems that loom a lot larger than the current ones - which by themselves are bad enough, considering that everybody's pumping flat-out. btw., i'm very worried by the fact that th stock market seems to ignore oil most of the time...a bad case of complacency imo, that could easily resolve in a panic. best to have a few BK puts in hand just in case. in this context, note huge put OI in index options...if things get a little panicky, we'll get a delta-hedging related selling orgy.

To: dawgfan2000 who wrote (13471)	10/14/2004 8:58:58 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Economists fret about oil, wonder if Greenspan does too Thursday, October 14, 2004 9:30:33 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) -- The economy could be headed toward its second soft patch in six months, according to economists, as higher oil prices since mid-August might put the brake on consumer spending The run-up in oil prices "is not a good thing," said Sherry Cooper, global economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns. "The question is how damaging is it?" Although growth in the July-through-September quarter looks likely to be above 4 percent, the fourth-quarter growth rate is starting to look troubling to some economists "For the fourth quarter, watch out -- the consumer could take a hit again if [oil] prices don't come down from this level," said Chris Rupkey, economist at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi "I think the fourth-quarter growth rate is going to be closer to 2 percent," Cooper said Fed watchers will be listening closely to Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on Friday, when he is scheduled to address the topic of oil prices in a speech at noon Eastern time Economists are worried about the double-edged sword of higher oil prices. Not only could the higher oil prices damage the fragile recovery, but they also could boost inflationary pressures "I do think that inflation has bottomed," Cooper said And some economists think they're watching the same horror movie they saw in May "If, say, the move from $25 to $41 in the first half of this year caused the spring slow patch, what is $35 to $54 going to do the expansion?" asked David Gilmore, an analyst with Foreign Exchange Analytics Analysts still expect the Fed to hike rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 2 percent at the next Fed meeting, Nov. 10 But Cooper said she believed the Fed would skip tightening at the December meeting in order to give policy-makers three months to assess the interplay of oil prices on the economy before their next policy meeting Greenspan downplayed the impact of higher oil prices on the economy when he last addressed the issue in early September "The party line [at the Federal Reserve] has been that higher oil prices are a negative, but not that big a negative, and we don't think it is going to clobber the economy," said Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez He said financial markets would comb the Greenspan speech for hints that the Fed is looking to slow down the tightening process that's already under way Many economists have said that oil prices will have to remain at these high levels for a few more weeks before slowing growth "Two months ago, we argued that a combination of soft job growth and high energy prices would indeed very likely force the Fed to pause. If prices remain close to $50 a barrel for a month or longer, our energy-price criterion would essentially have been met," said economists at Dismal Scientist