Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (20000)	10/14/2004 8:06:34 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Thu Oct 14 2004 18:51 trotsky (Apollo@consumer) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved as you may have noticed, i've more than once predicted that the next big event in this secular downturn will be a consumer recession - a hefty one. i expected this even before oil prices soared, on account of my conviction that the real estate and mortgage credit bubble would eventually falter - regardless of the level of interest rates. the sharp price rises in commodities, esp. oil, only serve to hasten the process and ensure that it will be extraordinarily painful ( although you probably won't notice in the government's massaged-to-death economic statistics - but the stock market will tell the tale, as it did in the '00 to '02 downleg ) . by the way, the signs of the RE bubble's likely imminent demise are now unmistakable imo - anecdotal as well as hard evidence ( the former concerns price declines in 'hot' areas, the latter concerns inventories of unsold homes on the market ) point to the fact that this thing is teetering on the precipice right here. interesting times coming, as they say. trotsky (Apollo@oil) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved yes, it's getting scary. we're already way beyond the level of prices that were the harbinger of the last recession ( the $37 high in '00 ) , and as you say, the market seems to be pricing in future supply problems that loom a lot larger than the current ones - which by themselves are bad enough, considering that everybody's pumping flat-out. btw., i'm very worried by the fact that th stock market seems to ignore oil most of the time...a bad case of complacency imo, that could easily resolve in a panic. best to have a few BK puts in hand just in case. in this context, note huge put OI in index options...if things get a little panicky, we'll get a delta-hedging related selling orgy.