Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cisco who wrote (6646)	10/14/2004 9:17:07 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6710

My crystal ball says New Jersey Kerry, Florida Bush. I think Ohio is the swing state, and right now Ohio seems to be leaning Bush. But you're right, there are three weeks left, who knows what can happen?

To: Cisco who wrote (6646)	10/15/2004 8:39:14 PM
From: Cisco	Respond to of 6710

I need to make some corrections to my predictions. I noticed a mistake in assigning electoral votes. The least number of electoral votes that Kerry and Bush will get are 153 and 198 respectively. If the vote breaks strongly in either direction Kerry could get as many a 340 electoral votes and Bush 388 electoral votes. If things remain as they are today, I predict the likely out come will be Bush 292 electoral votes and Kerry 246 electoral votes. For Bush to win, he only needs to harvest 72 of the following 187 electoral votes from the following states: ME(4), NH(4), NJ(15), PA(21), OH(20), FL(27), IA(7), MO(11), NV(5), NM(5), OR(7), VA(13), WA(11), WI(10), MN(10), and MI(17). 138 electoral votes are found in states where Bush has an excellent chance of winning: NH, NJ, OH, PA, FL, IA, MO, NV, NM, VA, and WI. For Kerry to win he must harvest 117 of the same 187 electoral votes listed above. 148 of these electoral votes are found in states where Kerry has an excellent chance of winning: FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NJ, NM, MO, OH, OR, PA, and WA. Therefore the states (115 electoral votes) that will make or break this election are FL, IA, MO, NV, NH, NJ, NM, OH, and PA. Bush will most likely win if he gets 49 of the following 100 electoral votes: FL(27), IA(7), MO(11), NV(5), NH(4), NM(5), OH(20), and PA(21). Kerry will most likely win if he gets 68 electoral votes from this same list. Therefore, to win Kerry must carry 2 of the big 3: FL, OH, and PA. For Bush to win, I now believe he must win 1 of the big 3: FL, OH, and PA. Provided that the election is not over when these three states are counted then one only needs to turn to IA(7), MO(11), NV(5), NH(4), and NM(5) to determine the winner! At this point Bush must win MO(11) and one of the other 4 states to win. Assuming that Bush gets at least one of ME's electoral votes, it is possible for Bush to win without MO but he must have won PA and run the table on the four smaller states. Kerry could win without MO(11) provided he won FL(27) and PA(21) and sweeps all four of the smaller states. If OH(20) is the one of the three big states that Kerry won, then he too must win MO(11)to have a chance of winning along with all four of the smaller states. Believe it or not, there is a chance of a tie in electoral votes this election. And this is not even taking into account the fact that two states, Maine and Nebraska, do not use winner take all. In those states, the winner of each congressional district gets one elector and the winner of the state as a whole gets an additional two. If I had to bet, I believe Kerry will get 3 of ME electoral votes and Bush will get 1. I believe Bush will get all of Nebraska's electoral votes. Currently, I believe it is likely that Bush will win OH and MO with FL being more questionable, but probably in his column. If this is the case, it will be a short night.