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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (20019)	10/15/2004 11:50:30 AM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 110194

I agree with most of what you said, except >>none of this rambling helps with investing<< Even if we are at or near peak oil production -- let's admit, it has finally become a popular subject, though the populace at large and our politicians aren't tuned in yet -- the things you say about an acute situation are true. My comments earlier have to do with just that point -- everyone on these threads has focused on that "big picture" and failed to see the near term dynamics that have led to higher oil prices right now. How much of $54/barrel is our approaching peak oil and how much is near term dynamics?? Some think it is stupid to ask such a question -- after all, don't you know the end of the world is at hand here. Tech stocks are going to zero. You will need wheelbarrows full of greenbacks to buy a loaf of bread tomorrow ... and so on. If a recession is coming -- and you can put me in that camp -- reduced consumption of oil is a given and will be reflected in the price BEFORE it is obvious to everyone. Do I think that oil is going to be on a permanently higher plateau for the next 5 years or so? YES, I do -- but I don't think it is going to be at 60 or 70 dollars ... Again, I cite the example of nat gas -- not the same commodity, I know -- but when it was recognized there was serious supply constraints we got a significant overshoot on the price before settling down to the the average we've seen the last couple of years. Here's some additional "heresy" -- I think gas will not be +9 this year, but that if we get normal weather we'll see it with a 5 handle. If weather is warmer than normal 4's won't surprise me.