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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: michael97123 who wrote (147972)10/17/2004 9:41:47 AM
From: jttmab  Respond to of 281500
 
Just as i once again became certain that Kerry was going to win, John Zogby apparently just came out with his latest poll showing Bush up 4% in a post debate poll.

You are so, so "out-of-date". That was yesterday <s>

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic challenger John Kerry cut President Bush's lead to 2 points with just over two weeks to go before the Nov. 2 election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released Sunday.

Bush led Kerry by 46 percent to 44 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll of the closely contested race for the White House. The president led the Massachusetts senator by 48 percent to 44 percent the previous day.

"The third debate is now registering among voters and Kerry had a good day," pollster John Zogby said.

The new tracking poll found Kerry regained a good lead among 18- to 29-year-old voters and consolidated his advantage among Hispanics. Bush and Kerry were tied among Roman Catholics, a group Kerry, himself a Catholic, must win to capture the White House, Zogby said. ...


reuters.com

2 1/2 hours old...I'm not sure this poll is still good. <LOL>

I've take the firm position that I don't know who's going to win.

jttmab



To: michael97123 who wrote (147972)10/17/2004 9:51:03 AM
From: jttmab  Respond to of 281500
 
A different perspective....we all tend to ignore the margin of error when it comes to looking at polling data, even when we are conscious that the margin of error is there.

In the 2000 election there were 111 million voters.

If the Zogby poll reflects a 2% change [+4% >>>> +2% for Bush] that would suggest that 1-2% of the voters changed their mind in the last 2 days. 1.1-2.2 million voters changed their minds in the last two days. Could be.

jttmab