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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (20023)	10/15/2004 1:56:54 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Fri Oct 15 2004 13:47 trotsky (crude oil positioning) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved as of last week's COT report, the small speculators were net short about 15,000 crude oil contracts - down from over 20,000 the week before. it's amazing, but crude is regularly invaded by an army of top pickers - which explains why it keeps rising so relentlessly. at the top i expect these positions to be cleaned out and replaced by a net long position. it often happens that way...the guys who hated crude at 30 or 40 will love it at 60...and will help us to project the turn. Date: Fri Oct 15 2004 13:11 trotsky (Greenspan) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved talks peak oil - and offers the polyannish belief that 'technology will save the day'. we'll see about that. all the technology in the world can't change the fact that the last giant field was found in 1969 - a field that incidentally, is now depleted ( Prudhoe Bay - its production has plunged from over 1m. bbl./day to about 300k. bbl./day ) . as an aside, Simmons avers that technology has led to faster depletion of existing fields, and demonstrates this convincingly in his study of the Saudi Arabian giant fields.