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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (11740)	10/15/2004 4:15:23 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "When do you think NVLS will start to see significant revenue from CMP?" In the conference call, they moved the time ahead one quarter, but I have forgotten what the previous schedule was. I think the JP Morgan report emphasized PVD in 2005 and CMP in 2006. Hill said that targets are always 50% market share and that they expect the inital move to take them to double digit market share. I would guess Q2 2005 to Q4 2005. I think NVLS is the semi-equip company with the greatest potential to gain market share. I think that, the book value, and the current PE are supporting the price. LRCX should be higher based on PE, but the market doesn't have any confidence in the sustainability of any semi-equips' earnings and LRCX still competes in one niche, albeit large with sub niches, against AMAT and TEL, the 2 most formidable competitors in the industry.

To: Kirk © who wrote (11740)	10/15/2004 4:24:38 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 25522

RE: "The barrier to entry for the two analog companies is good chip designers." Yes, and their American competitors haven't been able to touch them so I am not worried about China. When I worked at TMT and Credence, we sold analog and mixed signal chip testers to MXIM and LLTC. At one time MXIM was 95% of TMT's business. Naturally, I asked all the analog test engineers at TMT and Credence why LLTC and MXIM did so well. They didn't know. One speculated that it was good management. These guys are very secretive. Initially, LLTC would not buy a tester from TMT because they didn't trust TMT's relationaship with MXIM. When TMT was bought by Credence, LLTC became a customer.