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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: etchmeister who wrote (11744)	10/17/2004 2:45:30 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

I didn't mean to imply that that the etch niche was small or insignificant. Your comparison of LRCX to ASML is very good. In my mind the important differences are: 1. ASML competitors are restricted to the photo niche in fab tools and other businesses might be looked at as a diversion and motive for them to move out of lithography, while LRCX competitors are the diversified leaders in fab tool production; and 2. ASML has demonstrated a large competitive edge in innovation in photo and has moved from small player to leader in about 10 years, while LRCX has failed in its attempts to move to other niches during a period when their competitors have gained huge share in new niches. Bottom line: ASML R & D stronger than its competitors, LRCX, weaker. Hill is not "sloppy", just painfully honest. You left out copper electroplating when you listed NVLS niches. I think you are too negative about the "top line". NVLS predicted Q4 revenues of $300-330M. That will bring 2004 revenues to $1317-1347M. Bubble peak in 2001 was $1339M. LRCX bubble peak in 2001 was $1520M and 2004 (FY Jun 30) was $936M. NVLS revenue looks even better when you realize that the PVD ramp has just started and the CMP ramp is imminent. The chart you presented mostly reflects greater volatility for LRCX on the downside. Peak prices for LRCX and NVLS during the bubble were ~$60 and ~$70, respectively.