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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (54335)	10/16/2004 9:26:33 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Energyplay, Whenever we can get ACF Mike to write about important issues of the day such as ‘sperring’, we know for sure we are pushing all the ‘collect’ buttons :0) When ACF Mike wrote … <<It's not hard to get a double once in a while and the endorphins that that releases feel great. What is very difficult, however, is to repeat that double with every second or third trade, over and over, year after year>> … he was probably inadvertently correct; although we of the thread seem to garner our disproportionate share of two baggers when compared to the unwashed masses out there. May they remain unwashed, and let us keep doubling. I am aware of ACF Mike’s shorting Boston housing from perhaps more than 30 months ago, or 60% appreciation since, and I am told that ACF Mike is into some geewhizbang big cap fund. I cannot say I have not been trying to save ACF Mike from himself. Regarding real time postings, I find them useful, for they impose a discipline on one’s baser impulses and not-astute instincts. Public ridicule is a powerful medicine against hubris. I must announce, with mucho trepidation, that I am now running a Phase III Trial that will play itself out over the coming five years involving. Message 20606724 <<10/6/2004 1:14:17 AM>> Behind Door #1 is the Great Unwinding; Door #2 leads to Utter Disgrace; Door #3 opens up to I Do Not Know What My Undoing Will Be Yet. Here is the start of the Trial Log Message 20625572 <<10/10/2004 8:35:05 PM>> I am deeply concerned about a possible ‘triple waterfall’ descend of the US market post-election, regardless of which mob-electorate-chosen leader November 2nd manages to get into the cockpit of the Homeland. I am actually praying that ACF Mike is right about the US equity market, and that the speculative fever, chanting-swaying-and-holding-hands style, will remain boiling hot and not just vaporize altogether just yet. I am also terrified of any China engendered ‘nothing-is-spared’ Asian share market deluge. But, or and yet, I must walk the lonely path. Chugs, Jay

To: energyplay who wrote (54335)	10/17/2004 1:38:57 AM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

>>Doubling every few trades would be great, especially if you can do it in a few months. Takes me about 2 years.<< Then you are a 3 sigma trader or maybe even 4 sigma. Look, I'm not saying it can't be done, just that it takes an unusually smart guy like you to do it. Now, the trick is to repeat that for the next twenty years, in bull and bear markets, with high and low volatility. The fact remains that for most people it's tough to beat the averages over the long term. Paying ordinary income taxes on your short term trading profits makes it a lot tougher. >>Jay has posted most of his trades for a few years now, and I think he has done over 25% per year.<< I'm sure he has, probably more, but in a way that almost makes my point as Jay is clearly (apparently) one of the savviest traders around these parts. The majority have done less than Jay's 25%, I would guess.