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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (54337)	10/17/2004 4:32:57 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Good on you Jay!! Those were nice trades! Puts on PetroChina, like puts on Frontline the week before they announce their next dividend (Ahhh, I relish the next cycle in FRO coming up in a few weeks). Like so much free money... Out of all of the Sage's calls, the attractive one was PTR. Comcast here, mobile home builder there (I do see the reasoning in this one, though)-leave them to someone who understands them (if you know what I mean). David PS There is evidence the uranium hot money has moved onto precious metals, particularly gold and silver. Mahendra puts silver at $9 soon, and $18 in the near future. He correctly picked the bottom in mid-Sept (when it hit $6.12 or so) and thus I am careful not to disregard his calls. On the broader market, he can be lacking but on the PMs he is quite good. Quite a lot of hot money wants into this sector, not just the non-commercial (ie hedge fund) specs but also CBs. When the RMB becomes gold and silver backed it will be too late. I know you own your PAAS. I recently added some Canadian options trading in the US. For now just focusing on ABX and PDG. Message 20648129 SnP, I picked up some ABX, PDG calls today. I know the ABX hedging program sucks and it may or may not come off, but here's what I think: Jan 07 US$22.5 Calls $3.20 ABX US$20.57 Assumptions: 1.CDN$ appreciates a minimum of 20% in 1 year. 2.ABX does not fall in CDN$ value. $20.57X1.2=$24.68 new USD ABX price Your calls are now in the money. Alternately, if the calls had 365 days left on them, according to ivolatility.com they'd be worth $5.80 each with ABX at $24.68. Compare these to buying CDN$ Canadian calls on the MOE and this is way cheaper. This is how I play the USD devaluation against the CDN on dual listed commodity issues. These are some of the cheapest calls I've seen. $5.80 in value, paid $3.20. You have to buy the assumption that the CDN units will not fall in price and the USD devaluates. Inco Jan 07 calls and Alcan Jan 07 calls are also doable, but a bit more expensive. David