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To: schzammm who wrote (19882)	10/16/2004 10:04:08 PM
From: Area51	Respond to of 78715

Nice writeup on the Big Pharma. If you wanted the negative argument on PFE I think it would center around the 2005 PE of 12 being much greater than the 2005 - 2008 growth rate of about 5% per year (or at least Goldman Sachs has 2.86 EPS in 2008). And if you believe that Kerry will be elected that growth rate is probably too high as the democratic party relies on lower drug prices to win popular support, and lax tort reform so that trial laywers can continue to line the coffers of the democratic party. If you believe Bush will be reelected I think you have a pretty good argument.

To: schzammm who wrote (19882)	10/16/2004 10:15:57 PM
From: Brendan W	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78715

shzammm - i'm in pfizer, bristol, novartis, and j&j and still like them as investments. the one set of risks that you only vaguely reference are the political risks. Paraphrasing Morgan Stanley: [Abbott]... "... faces a number of risks to its upside price target which include political risks facing the pharmaceutical industry which may result in major changes affecting drug prices". The last Democratic president (who was more conservative than Kerry) attempted changes to healthcare delivery that were potentially damaging. The level of damage possible if a Democratic administration gets creative (single-payering Medicare, whatever) is not estimable. It is not clear that a Kerry administration would continue support for the private sector's drug discovery (multi-billion dollar payoffs for important new drugs). In other words, there's a 50% chance that things could be more adverse a year from now (perhaps significantly).

To: schzammm who wrote (19882)	10/17/2004 7:40:32 AM
From: John Carragher	Respond to of 78715

PFE definitely has some potential problems with their COX-2 inhbitors. Not sure the jury is out on pfe product. vioxx and mrk big time problems but hard to believe pfe doesn't have the same problems.. I would factor into pfe if thinking value stock that they do have problems and face massive class action suits and adjust prices. Then with that assumption i would judge do i want to buy pfe.. if not i would look at other stocks as i do not see the need to buy pfe with a big cloud hanging over it. imo