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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (6661)	10/17/2004 5:21:33 AM
From: Cisco	Respond to of 6710

>> is it possible that Nader will throw in the towel at the last minute?<< Not a chance! If you look close, you will notice that Riley Associates has never agreed with the other polls. It has always favorite Bush. It is probably polling for a republican organization. Oregon was close in 2000 only because Nader pulled over 5%. This time he will probably pull closer to 2%. I have Oregon as a possible win for Bush, but only in a national landslide for Bush. Otherwise I believe it is going Kerry/Edwards. If Kerry wins OH, FL, and PA, Bush is in trouble! As long as Bush gets one of the three and MO, I believe he will win.

To: Ilaine who wrote (6661)	10/18/2004 3:42:51 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 6710

My sense is that Bush is somehow, I can't figure out how, pulling ahead. Agreed. You are seeing decisions being made by a lot of folks who said they were in Kerry's camp to vote for Bush. The reasons are multiple, but have as a theme the fact that the Two Johns are not simpatico. They are getting rejected by the voters as someone they would date but not marry. It is easy for television to capture hypocrisy and pandering--the debates served to establish that Kerry will say and do anything to get a vote, no matter how untrue or distasteful. He is promising huge tax cuts and tons of spending on domestic and security initiatives but the voter who works with a household budget knows that it is impossible to have guns and butter. In short, Kerry is beginning to feel the voters' resentment for his patronizing words. He treats them like they're stupid, and it is starting to hurt him politically as his words get parsed. Bush's campaign has been blunder-free for the past three weeks or so while the same cannot be said of the Two Johns'. The Mary Cheney and the Christopher Reeves incidents were mistakes, with the M. Cheney matter being a significant one. Little John has lost whatever charm and appeal he might have had when he had his wife show her nails/claws at Lynne Cheney for defending her daughter. Stupid, stupid, stupid. The Kerry campaign should have issued an apology right away. They didn't because they are getting their heads handed to them and are not focused nor cool-headed. I'm beginning to think that the election won't be as close as I thought it would originally be. I'm reminded of an econometrician [Kerry supporter] who has devised some wildly successful means of predicting elections who said long ago it would be a landslide for the GOP. I'll see if I can find his material. Edit: Here it is. Defintely worth reading: nytimes.com