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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skeezixx who wrote (26852)	10/17/2004 11:32:21 AM
From: Rich Wolf	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

You might want to keep two sets of numbers in mind: sales in dollars and volume shipments. Part of the 'miss' was price-cutting. How much will this continue, Q by Q, is tough to call. As prices per MB fall, royalties fall, unless made up by selling cards with more MB. I listened to some of the CC. What I don't like is hearing Eli providing opportunity for the investment community to set such a high bar again. Now he calls for $500M, 'if we execute properly.' Some of that may be out of his control. Funny, talking with a moderately tech-savvy friend, he was commenting on how he 'only needs one card for his digital camera' so he sees little growth in demand apart from uniform growth with camera sales. I take some issue with that, since as bigger cards become more affordable, and as people migrate to cameras capable of photos with greater resolution, memory demands grow. But it wouldn't surprise me if some analysts take a dim view of growth, insisting like they did last summer, for the industry to 'show me.' New markets for flash will help long term. Stock: I don't see a quick snap-back, although moods could change in a month or two if the holiday season progresses well, and this is a manic market. We could have scenarios where the stock is held underwater for a while, then loaded up by funds either before or after the end of the year. At the latest, we may get a modest run before earnings again, assisted by a January effect of funds buying tech. FD: Was out of the stock during the big run, like it long term, believe in mgt execution/decisions, so was waiting for an opportunity to reenter. Took a big bite at 20.5 avg, so expecting to see the stock droop below 20 for a bit just because of that. Re: margin situation, you'll probably be lucky to see a 10% dead cat, maybe only 5% clips, so you'll have to make some hard decisions this week. The close Friday saw more pressure, so that forebodes for next week. Lacking any impetus from consumer data etc, I don't see a big reason for the stock to snap back big short term. My move was a 'buy and wait.' Now I'll just sit on it for a few months and go from there. Good luck.