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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (20082)	10/17/2004 12:49:54 PM
From: glenn_a	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Thanks so much for your reply Russ. I really value your "real time" analysis. I find Jim Puplava's show very good for that as well, as have Donald Coxe's conference calls been. You have been very prescient on the commodity "crack up boom" that has transpired these past couple of years. My current 21% oil & gas junior equity holding (as a % of my total portfolio), my 27% precious metals junior & physical bullion holdings, and my 3% integrated forest company in China have been significantly prompted by your "world view" arising from your "real time" analysis. However, my 45% cash-equivalent position (in CDN$) is my hedge that we may get the more deflationary impact of the equation come our way soon. Here's my assessment. You commented that I well described what you would consider to be a balanced and responsible monetary policy. But there's another way it could be "played" by financial elites. To my observations, their game is "gearing" and "leverage". Start a trend, ride it to its extreme, then pull the rug out from the unwitting (i.e. those not "in the inner circle of the game"). It's beautiful in its perversity really. So if a balanced inflationary/deflationary policy response would be the most responsible, least damaging solution to our present dilemma, here's what I figure they do. Take one policy response pole (say the inflationary), and gear it to the max. Typically, I find this lends itself well to a 2-3 year period (i.e. roughly half the time of a normal business cycle). Get the general market buying into the trend of this time period (and remember, towards the end of this cycle there should be relative complacency and maximal gearing), and then reverse it. The reversal of course is not based on a "continuous" assessment of the prevailing trend, and thus catches the vast majority seriously offside. The "inner core" of this game of course has perfectly timed the reversal, and makes good coin on the reversal. Then begins the trending and gearing of the other pole - which in our situation I expect to be a more deflationary emphasis, with a pronounced return to positive real interest rates (i.e. a normalization of the interest rate structure). This is really the 'ol Hegelian thesis-antithesis resolution which the Masonic-inspired financial elites have practiced so well in both finance and war for centuries. Once you see the underlying pattern, it's both extremely beautiful in its criminal elegance, and of course extraordinarily pathetic in its disregard for the welfare of the broader human community. So we'll just have to see. Take it day by day, and see how things unfold. But personally, I fully expect a discontinuous rupture of current trends, which effectively will create massive arbitrage opportunities for those in a position to anticipate or benefit from such a scenario. Of course, I would like nothing more than for their antics to get out of hand, and a social conscience arise which criminally prosecutes the entire power structure. Likely? Not I think. Possible? Perhaps. I think it's that possibility that keeps my faith in the future alive. Thanks again for your thoughts Russ. Glenn