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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: C_Johnson who wrote (11751)	10/18/2004 12:04:00 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 25522

>> Due diligence from press releases, wire stories and quarterly conference calls is superficial - at best. It does not even scratch the surface of relationships that are generated at the manufacturer/equipment/supplier level. What else is available to an investor who is not an insider ? Or even currently employed in the semi-equip industry ? Analyst earnings projections are just a copy of company guidance. I wonder if you would comment on the conclusion that I have reached, that all Silicon Valley chip and semi-equip companies are run only for the benefit of their managements and employees, and not for the benefit of shareholders. That occasionally, the shares are mispriced to the point that a patient speculator can buy at a trough, and sell higher. But that simply there is no long term value in these shares. Because the technology direction is not predictable for those who are not actively working with it.

To: C_Johnson who wrote (11751)	10/18/2004 10:55:44 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "...why don't they admit what has transpired since they hired the supply chain manager that buried Lam in the mid-90's?" I am not sure what you are referring to. LRCX and NVLS have had gross margins of 48 and 50% the past two quarters. What has "transpired"? RE: "...I'd appreciate someone detailing why the PVD ramp is just beginning and the CMP ramp is imminent. Are there process reasons or is this just another of those chat-room speculations?" Not speculation and not from a "chat-room". The reasons are competitive and the information originates from CEO Hill in the conference calls, quarterly and mid-quarter update. AMAT is the competitor. NVLS has taken 7 years since the Varian purchase to develop a competitive PVD tool. They have one now. They believe that they have one in CMP and its development has been much more rapid than PVD.