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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chispas who wrote (13590)	10/18/2004 9:32:00 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

ECB´s Gonzales-Paramo: no need to cut growth forecast despite high oil price Monday, October 18, 2004 6:31:23 AM afxpress.com ECB's Gonzales-Paramo: no need to cut growth forecast despite high oil price FRANKFURT (AFX) - European Central Bank board member Jose Manuel Gonzales-Paramo said he believes the euro zone economic recovery remains on track despite uncertainties caused by high oil prices In an interview with daily Handelsblatt, he said: "The uncertainties caused by oil prices and a few mixed signals from the economy have of course increased "But I still do not believe that we have to change our (growth) forecasts. The recovery continues." European Commission monetary affairs commissioner Joaquin Almunia said Friday that the growth forecast for 2005 could be revised downward on Oct 26 when the commission's latest euro zone economic projections are published ============================================================ The denial is staggering Mish

To: Chispas who wrote (13590)	10/18/2004 9:33:46 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Bank of Japan not worried by IT slowdown, minutes of policy board meeting show Monday, October 18, 2004 8:36:20 AM afxpress.com TOKYO (AFX) - The Bank of Japan's policy board was not greatly worried at its meeting on September 8-9 by a slowdown in export and industrial output growth, seeing it as due to temporary factors in the information technology (IT) sector, the minutes of the meeting show Industrial production dropped by 0.6 pct in July from the monthly average during April-June, when output increased 2.6 pct from the previous quarter That decline and sluggish export growth were due to slowing economic growth abroad, and Japanese companies were "starting to restrain their production before inventories became significantly excessive," according to the minutes The central bank's nine-member policy board nevertheless agreed that production was likely to continue increasing, albeit at a slightly slower pace, due to continued growth in exports, recovering domestic demand and a drop already in overall inventories But some members expressed concern over the slowing growth in global demand for IT-related products, the decline in exports of digital appliances to the US, and downward revisions by some private research houses and IT-related firms in their demand forecasts "Some members noted a concern that the economic recovery might stall if inventory adjustments of IT-related goods were severe and sudden as at the time of the bursting of the IT bubble in 2001," the minutes said But the board generally believed that any adjustment in output of IT-related goods was unlikely to be significant because Japanese manufacturers, applying the lessons learned from 2001, had already begun to wind down output Some board members also said that compared to 2001, Japanese IT product makers had ample cash flow and their balance sheets were stronger, "and these factors were underpinning the economic recovery." The board agreed "it was reasonable to expect a long-lasting economic recovery if the adjustment in IT-related goods progressed while the overall economy continued to recover," the minutes said As for prices, the minutes show that the board expected the rise in crude oil prices to push up prices of refined petroleum products like gasoline. But price prices were projected to start declining from October from year-earlier levels "Consumer prices were therefore projected to basically continue falling slightly on a year-on-year basis," the minutes said The policy board voted unanimously on September 9 to maintain the central bank's super-loose credit policy aimed at keeping short-term interest rates at virtually zero Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui has repeatedly vowed that the central bank will maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy until the year-on-year change in the nationwide core consumer price index remains steadily above zero ============================================================ Greenspan not worried Japan not worried Europe not worried Why do I sense otherwise? Mish

To: Chispas who wrote (13590)	10/18/2004 9:46:02 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Euro zone Sept HICP up 2.1 pct yr-on-yr vs provisional 2.2 Monday, October 18, 2004 9:15:19 AM afxpress.com BRUSSELS (AFX) - The euro zone's harmonised index of consumer prices rose a final 2.1 pct year-on-year in September, compared with the provisional estimate of a 2.2 pct increase and with August's figure of 2.3 pct, EU statistics office Eurostat said Month-on-month, the HICP rose 0.2 pct Analysts polled by AFX News had forecast a year-on-year increase of 2.1 pct and a 0.2 pct rise from August Eurostat said prices excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco -- its favoured measure of core inflation -- were up 1.9 pct year-on-year, unchanged from August's increase Prices excluding energy and unprocessed food rose 2.1 pct year-on-year, compared with an increase of 2.2 pct in August. This measure of core inflation is closely watched by the European Central Bank

To: Chispas who wrote (13590)	10/18/2004 10:00:14 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

3M Posts Higher Profit, Misses Estimates biz.yahoo.com CHICAGO (Reuters) - 3M Co. (NYSE:MMM - News) on Monday said third-quarter earnings rose 17 percent due in part to the weak dollar, but the diversified manufacturer's results came in below Wall Street's estimates for the first time in at least seven quarters. The maker of Scotch tape and Post-It notes also forecast weaker-than-expected earnings in the current quarter and sounded a note of caution on the global economy, sending shares down 3.6 percent in trading before the market opened. "We look at 3M as the best proxy for world (gross domestic product) growth, and we're not surprised by its results," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer with Solaris Asset Management. "It really goes hand in hand with what's been happening with the economy, growth slowly ratcheting down.".............

To: Chispas who wrote (13590)	10/18/2004 1:02:34 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK house prices fall at fastest rate for 9 yrs in Sept - RICS - Monday, October 18, 2004 4:21:54 PM afxpress.com (Updating with more details throughout) LONDON (AFX) - House prices fell at their fastest rate for nine years in September as the Bank of England's series of interest rate hikes took their toll on the housing market, a survey showed The latest house price survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors showed that in the three months to September, 30 pct more surveyors reported a fall in house prices than a rise, the weakest level since June 1995 In August, the balance was -12, the first negative reading in over a year Details of the survey were leaked ahead of the scheduled release at midnight tonight But RICS believes it is unlikely that the housing market will experience a deep or prolonged downturn in prices as long as the economy remains stable and people are confident about job security The survey found that buyer enquiries fell for the fifth consecutive month. Activity was more depressed in Northern England and the Midlands but a little less pronounced in Southern England, including London. Looking ahead, surveyors predict a period of stagnation with sales activity levelling out. RICS national housing spokesperson Ian Perry said the BoE is getting what it wanted. ‘The medicine is working. The slowdown is desirable from the point of view of market sustainability and may mean that further rate rises are unnecessary for the time being. While consumers keep confidence in job security and the economy we don't expect large price falls," he added. The data is likely to cement expectations that the BoE will not raise rates any further at least until next year, with a strong possibility that rates have already peaked The BoE has hiked interest rates five times since last November, taking the current rate to 4.75 pct "The data runs a coach and horses through other survey data for September from the building societies (Nationwide and Halifax) which peculiarly suggested price rises during the month," said CALYON analyst Daragh Maher. The report will make it difficult for any hawkish concerns expressed in the minutes from the last meeting of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee to "have a lasting impact" on either the pound or short sterling, he noted The MPC minutes are due for release on Wednesday