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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Snowshoe who wrote (54385)	10/18/2004 4:19:16 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Snowshoe, You speak of several hundred miles from here. I assumed from the discussion that "here" meant China but you use "miles" rather than kilometers so I'm confused as to where here is. Anyway, I'd like to point out that China is huge. That's three words; maybe they don't convey the scale eloquently enough; anyway China is one vast place. I'm a bit surprised after half a century of not being any more a semi-colony, China has not found enough resources. When I lived in China everybody I knew was confident that China had huge resources of coal, enough for centuries of use. Yet, imports of coal are big. etc.for other resources. It all looks like a puzzle.How does the new copper mine you are talking about fit into that? Malcolm

To: Snowshoe who wrote (54385)	10/18/2004 6:05:11 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Snowshoe, <<... am I right that you are bluntly reassessing your position on this? Seems to me that a little while ago you were merely calling for a bit of a cooling off in the rate of Chinese growth. Now your tone seems to have changed>> The short answer: I did change my position. The long answer: (a) I still believe the collapse is but a pebble on the road to prosperity, except the pebble may be a lot bigger than I thought it would be; (b) I do not believe China's growth rate will go negative, as in Depression of GDP, but China growth rate collapsing to +6% would be very noticeable already, especially to the financial market, which is but an thermometer up the behind of the real economy; and (c) I think it prudent to trim back a bit, perhaps even to add to the short positions, and this thought applies to all markets. I got phone calls this afternoon from two unrelated and fair proportioned Chinese mainland tycoons (revenue 1-2 billion RMB per annum), both self made, and both discussing the slow down in their respective sectors, and both wanted an assessment of the financial market and the US economy (I know nothing about nothing, said as much, but took a guess anyway :0) One call is curious. Two calls gave me the willies. After I put down the phone the second time, I put in some sell orders on the European and South African exchanges, and then went swimming. There is not much point taking a pointless chance, as I need the capacity to carry out my already committed wagers (November 1st, November 20-30th, April 1-30th). I will probably short some stuff on the US exchange this PM. A night of short blades, as it will be ;0) Chugs, Jay Just got this in my e-mail box from a guy in my lunch round table: i read more and more research about 1. commodity prices peaking, asian equities to be hardest hit like posco, bhp billiton. our strategists like outright shorts on commodities. 2. risk premium for emerging mkts at same levels as developed mkts which would make sense in low volatility env we've seen but risk reward isnt sustainable time to raise cash.. see attached.