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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (20184)	10/18/2004 11:10:41 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

russ, that is a good source and I refer to it often. The only problem being its timeliness. It is interesting how consumers' credit clearly reflects peak refi cycles. Some prudent consumers did indeed use refi and paid down their revolving debt. Regarding train wrecks, while we know there are many run away trains, we still need to figure what is going to cause the first big wreck. In the US, I continue to opine that it has to be employment. The "strength" is very interesting. In SD, it seems like anyone who wants to work can get a job. Some of my friends are actually having a tough time filling positions. In contrast, I have a friend who is a flight attendant for USAir. She is 3 years away from retirement. Like many others in that industry, she is hoping that the retirement benefits will be there but not too optimistic. With the last round of pay cuts, she said her pay now is back to when she started with the airlines many years ago. While she is in reasonably good shape, I find it hard to believe that all USAir employees can financially handle a 21% pay cut. Are defaults on all credits around the corner? Ramsey