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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (13601)	10/18/2004 2:05:41 PM
From: loantech	Respond to of 116555

mish it is scary.

To: mishedlo who wrote (13601)	10/18/2004 2:09:53 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

<for their theory to be consistent they can't admit that this boom will end and result in falling prices. it's their achilles heel.> I guess he doesn't put me in the company of Bugos and Saville, <g> as this is an easy one, primarily because once again the two of you ignore how prices are set, in US Dollars. A housing bust will wreck the US economy, and correspondingly the remaining myth about the USD, namely that the US is a "vibrant" economy, and is a "magnet" for the world's capital, and other such bogus nonsense. Once this illusion is shattered the USD will get dumped, relative to real assets, especially precious assets or stronger currencies. It (the USD) will have greatly diminished purchasing power, and that's the key point of my Inflationary Bust/Train Wreck/Crack Up Boom argument. I even feel economic assets like food, metals, and energy will fare well relatively to the USD. Now if he's arguing prices will deflate against gold, or some remaining surviving "super-currency", then yes, there will be deflation, but that doesn't appear to be your or his argument?

To: mishedlo who wrote (13601)	10/18/2004 2:40:04 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

Mish: I agree with you and Heinz that the housing boom is rolling over and prices are posed to drop sharply. I also agree that a serious recession is not far off. But this does not necessarily means deflation. I can easily envision soaring inflation in many goods and services even as the economy tanks. That is what happened in Argentina not long ago. A collapsing currency triggered a virtual depression and soaring inflation at the same time. We will see the same here when the buck finally hits the skids against the Asian currencies IMHO. Probably not nearly as bad as Argentina, but bad enough to smash BOTH stock and bonds a la the 1970s.