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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (20220)	10/18/2004 7:01:09 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Again you are really missing the point about inflation, I refer again to the Nightmare essay for what I'm illustrating here, Bewildering fluctuations in costs prices and wages made it impossible to allocate resources and production rationally. More and more, the businessman became a speculator in goods and currencies. So the point isn't about some simple model of even pricing, where producer prices are passed on as "pricing power", and you have this benign mild stable inflation where nobody really gets hurt. Inflation is very uneven, very complex/unsimple and fluctuates, sometimes goods and services may deflate, even in Big Inflations. The key variable that makes it's so devastating is the price instability . Clearly and undeniably Delphi (and many, many others, I think it's huge in China right now) is dealing with toxic Train Wreck price instability and inflation here, and it's price instability and input goods inflation that is putting it's workers into the unemployment lines, period. Now I don't think we are yet in an German style hyper-inflation, I just think it's a clear and present danger after the next USD rout (shattered confidence and panic). Right now inflation is really gathering momentum world wide. But the catalyst that will bring on the next escalating phase of it will be currency collapse. The USD is the best candidate, but I wouldn't rule out the Yen, Yuan, Indian Rupee, Asian Tigers by default, if they stay pegged to the USD as it plummets. Of course I don't think they will, and when they cut loose from USD linkages and support operations, that will just throw the Old Maid Cards (Great Reflux) back into the US's face, and we will receive the brunt of it. If they don't do so, then the whole lot will all sink on the Titanic together, stayed tuned.