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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (19900)	10/18/2004 11:31:20 PM
From: - with a K	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78666

>>raising their 4th QTR outlook because of favorable grain prices. I thought higher grain prices were part of the problem Tyson and Sanderson faced recently: Shares of Tyson fell $1.47 to close at $16.26. The fourth quarter will be "more difficult, primarily due to unfavorable results from grain hedging activity, combined with weaker than expected demand in our chicken and beef segments," said Chief Executive John Tyson. Additionally, raw material costs for our prepared foods products did not decline as we expected." The warning and stock drop came less than a week after competitor Sanderson Farms (SAFM: news, chart, profile) was hammered when it missed Wall Street profit estimates and warned of higher grain costs and sagging chicken prices. marketwatch.com I didn't see any mention of this in your link on Pilgrim; it read to me as an insurance benefit re: some deli meat recalls. Regardless, I've been long SAFM a few weeks now, mainly based on its fundies. It stacks up well vs. its competition in growth, margins, and valuation: finance.yahoo.com SAFM VALUATION MEASURES Market Cap (intraday): 661.54M Enterprise Value (18-Oct-04)³: 591.91M Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 6.19 Forward P/E (fye 31-Oct-05)¹: 7.81 PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)¹: N/A Price/Sales (ttm): 0.63 Price/Book (mrq): 2.31 Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)³: 0.56 Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)³: 2.93 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Ends: 31-Oct Most Recent Quarter (mrq): 31-Jul-04 Profitability Profit Margin (ttm): 10.20% Operating Margin (ttm): 16.82% Management Effectiveness Return on Assets (ttm): 32.57% Return on Equity (ttm): 47.05% Income Statement Revenue (ttm): 1.05B Revenue Per Share (ttm): 52.61 Revenue Growth (lfy)³: 17.30% Gross Profit (ttm)²: 130.82M EBITDA (ttm): 202.18M Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 106.87M Diluted EPS (ttm): 5.358 Earnings Growth (lfy)³: 87.50% Balance Sheet Total Cash (mrq): 84.18M Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 4.22 Total Debt (mrq)²: 15.55M Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 0.054 Current Ratio (mrq): 3.606 Book Value Per Share (mrq): 14.372 Cash Flow Statement From Operations (ttm)³: 117.18M Free Cashflow (ttm)³: 96.98M VALUATION MEASURES Market Cap (intraday): 661.54M Enterprise Value (18-Oct-04)³: 591.91M Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 6.19 Forward P/E (fye 31-Oct-05)¹: 7.81 PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)¹: N/A Price/Sales (ttm): 0.63 Price/Book (mrq): 2.31 Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)³: 0.56 Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)³: 2.93 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Ends: 31-Oct Most Recent Quarter (mrq): 31-Jul-04 Profitability Profit Margin (ttm): 10.20% Operating Margin (ttm): 16.82% Management Effectiveness Return on Assets (ttm): 32.57% Return on Equity (ttm): 47.05% Income Statement Revenue (ttm): 1.05B Revenue Per Share (ttm): 52.61 Revenue Growth (lfy)³: 17.30% Gross Profit (ttm)²: 130.82M EBITDA (ttm): 202.18M Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 106.87M Diluted EPS (ttm): 5.358 Earnings Growth (lfy)³: 87.50% Balance Sheet Total Cash (mrq): 84.18M Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 4.22 Total Debt (mrq)²: 15.55M Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 0.054 Current Ratio (mrq): 3.606 Book Value Per Share (mrq): 14.372 Cash Flow Statement From Operations (ttm)³: 117.18M Free Cashflow (ttm)³: 96.98M finance.yahoo.com

To: E_K_S who wrote (19900)	10/20/2004 2:20:58 AM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78666

While I agree that a smart investor should look at the business cycle, I don't think that i would play a cycle with the laggards. Incidentally i believe that LSI is bound to be a laggard in the semiconductor group as the market for ASICS is more and more attacked by programmable logic, with them main player being ALTR and XNLX. I believe that this will continue and even accelerate in the future, LSI's business will suffer and the company will become more and more marginal in the future. While i agree that LSI can be a good short term speculation, I believe that over the LT this company is a loosing proposition.