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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (13630)	10/19/2004 9:14:28 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

German institutes see growth slowing to 1.5 pct in 2005 from 1.8 pct in 2004 Tuesday, October 19, 2004 9:15:41 AM afxpress.com FRANKFURT (AFX) - Germany's leading economic institutes said they have raised their GDP growth forecast for 2004 to 1.8 pct from 1.5 pct, after the German economy grew strongly in the first half due to an export boom But growth will slow to 1.5 pct in 2005 as world demand for German goods wanes and domestic demand improves only gradually, the six institutes said in their autumn report They also forecast that Germany will breach the EU stability and growth pact for the fourth year in succession by posting a public deficit of 3.5 pct of GDP in 2005, after a deficit of 3.8 pct this year Under the pact's rules, EU member states are not allowed to post deficits higher than 3 pct of GDP. The institutes said they expect the European Central Bank to lift its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.25 pct in spring next year, and leave it there for the remainder of 2005 This will reflect the fact that the deflationary risks that prompted the ECB to cut its rates to historic lows in 2003 are not longer evident, they said. However, the institutes said that as long as high oil prices do not drive general inflation higher, inflation in the euro zone should drop below 2 pct next year They expect the average price of Brent oil to fall to 37 usd per barrel by the end of 2005, from over 50 usd today

To: zonder who wrote (13630)	10/19/2004 9:16:11 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Euro zone Aug industrial output down 0.6 pct from July, up 1.5 yr-on-yr Tuesday, October 19, 2004 9:15:37 AM afxpress.com BRUSSELS (AFX) - Euro zone industrial output fell 0.6 pct in August from July, EU statistics office Eurostat said Output was up 1.5 pct year-on-year Economists polled by AFX News had forecast a month-on-month decline of 1.0 pct and a year-on-year increase of 1.7 pct Eurostat also revised down its estimates for July industrial production. It now calculates that output rose 0.2 pct month-on-month and 2.2 pct year-on-year in July. It had provisionally estimated that output was up 0.4 pct month-on-month and 2.4 pct year-on-year The sharpest decline in output in August was seen in durable consumer goods, where production contracted 2.6 pct month-on-month Output in the capital goods sector fell 0.3 pct and in the energy sector 0.2 pct. Production of intermediate goods and non-durable consumer goods were both unchanged in August

To: zonder who wrote (13630)	10/19/2004 9:18:45 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

China Sept passenger car output down 7.8 pct yr-on-yr at 177,400 units - NBS Tuesday, October 19, 2004 8:29:15 AM afxpress.com BEIJING (AFX) - China's passenger car output fell 7.8 pct year-on-year to 177,400 units in September, the first year-on-year drop since China joined the World Trade Organization nearly three years ago, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said The NBS did not explain the fall, but growth in the auto sector has been slowing since April, partly due to government efforts to slow an expansion of the industry through measures such as restrictions on car loans and investment Beijing sees the auto sector as in danger of overheating. Based on figures provided by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), passenger car output rose 6.32 pct month-on-month to 182,800 units in September from 171,900 units in August The NBS said January-September cumulative passenger car output reached 1.77 mln units, up 21 pct year-on-year, echoing CAAM figures of 1.8 mln units for the same period, up 22.02 pct year-on-year But the northern province of Jilin and the eastern city of Shanghai, China's biggest car producing centers, saw month-on-month output fall in September 28.2 pct and 15.6 pct respectively Year-on-year output slid 45.4 pct in Jilin and 21.9 pct in Shanghai for September, the NBS said The NBS added that car output across most of China's other provinces continued to rise in September, but said the growth rate has slowed significantly from the same period last year. Beijing saw a historically high output of 183,000 units in September, doubling last year's figures, mainly due to encouraging sales of Hyundai Automobile Co Ltd's Electra, a model produced in a joint venture between Beijing Automotive Industry Holding Corp and Hyundai Motor Group of South Korea A total of 12,000 Electra's were sold in September High-end sedans with engines of more than 2.5 liters saw the steepest drop in output in September, with production falling 52.7 pct year-on-year, mainly due to recent price cuts. Sedans with engines between 1.0 and 1.6 liters saw output decline by 10.3 pct year-on-year in September, and models between 1.6 and 2.5 liters by 2.1 pct year-on-year Sedans with engines below 1.0 liters saw output rise7.6 pct year-on-year, the NBS said Passenger car inventories saw their first decrease since the beginning of the year. Sedan inventories in September lost 10,000 units from last month, the NBS said, without providing other figures.

To: zonder who wrote (13630)	10/19/2004 9:21:39 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Swiss govt cuts 2005 GDP growth forecast - Tuesday, October 19, 2004 7:59:53 AM afxpress.com (Updates with more comments on economic outlook) ZURICH (AFX) - SECO, the Swiss economics ministry, said it lowered slightly its 2005 GDP growth forecast to 2.0 pct from its previous forecast of 2.3 pct It stuck to its growth forecast for this year of 1.8 pct The 2005 cut reflects the expectation of slightly weaker global economic conditions next year, higher oil prices, as well as domestic demand being dampened by ongoing weakness in the labour market, SECO said in a statement The 2005 upswing is not in danger, however, it said, with global conditions and low interest rates setting the stage for a solid performance "Growth is expected to be broad-based, boosted not only by exports, but also by levels of corporate investment and robust consumer demand," it said Oil prices have risen strongly since mid-September and are likely to remain high next year, but prospects for the world economic outlook remain good, it said And although there are indications of slightly slower growth in the US, the world's largest economy is still set to deliver a lively performance, it said Sentiment indicators for the euro zone -- Switzerland's most important export market -- have been positive over recent months, and the region is set to record growth of 2 pct next year, it added