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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: glenn_a who wrote (20249)10/19/2004 9:24:51 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
<self interest it will be geared towards - i.e. largely Japan's industrial cartels, and whatever elements of society need to be bought off to maintain the power of these cartels.>

If so, then we can use the historical example in the classic "German Nightmare" reference for guidance. Industrial cartels "do well" relatively speaking in Big Inflations, at least for awhile.

Large firms or combinations found it much easier to raise prices, to obtain raw materials and above all to obtain bank credit. Also, they could issue "notegold" or emergency money which more and more came to replace the paper mark as a medium of exchange. Some of these new industrial combinations were rational and efficient, but many were purely speculative operations. A new breed of financier arose.

Earlier the great German industrial leaders--men like Krupp, Thyssen and Siemens--had developed basic new ideas in technology or in organization. But now the rising stars were those of shrewd speculators and manipulators geared to quick trading and to jumping from deal to deal and from company to company. The most successful were those who saw the trend of events early, who borrowed to the hilt and bought up goods, shares and companies at bargain prices. Conglomerates sprung up forty years before the heyday of the conglomerate movement in the U.S. Perhaps the biggest operator of the day, Hugo Stinnes, formed a giant conglomerate including companies in oil, coal, steel, shipyards, electrical works, insurance, newspapers and hotels. He died in 1924, just before his empire fell apart in the cold winds of the stabilization period. Most of these new mushroom combinations and conglomerates were speculative bubbles which were only able to survive as long as they benefited from ongoing inflation.