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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: jim_p who wrote (21916)10/19/2004 10:54:41 AM
From: kodiak_bull  Respond to of 23153
 
Jim,

I see, with 2 weeks left, Prez Clinton is not yet cleared to campaign for Kerry. He can only walk around the neighborhood. A Kerry presidency would spell the end of Slick's chances of sleeping in the White House again, even if only on the sofa.

Polls now seem to be confirming Bush's lead in key states as predicted by the political futures market I mentioned before.

Kb



To: jim_p who wrote (21916)10/19/2004 2:14:09 PM
From: kodiak_bull  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23153
 
Polls are showing Bush opening up a bigger lead (and outside the statistical margin of error), but the Democratic site has now shown a huge shift to Kerry, giving him Wisconsin and Florida:

electoral-vote.com

The Republican site doesn't show the shift, though, although it does give Wisconsin to Kerry:

electionprojection.com

But the futures site is showing Bush pulling away:

57.8 x 48.5, to Kerry's 41.5 x 42.

More interesting is that Bush is still up in Wisconsin, Florida, Iowa, Ohio in the futures market.

Hmmm. One poll showed Bush trailing Kerry within the margin of error in New Jersey but the futures market gives Bush a 16 x 17 price, not even close.

Kb



To: jim_p who wrote (21916)10/20/2004 12:42:06 PM
From: kodiak_bull  Respond to of 23153
 
Jim,

This morning the futures market shows Bush with a 59.6 X 60.0 futures price as the election winner.

Kerry's price has slipped to 40.2 X 40.7.

On electors, it shows Bush getting over 270 with a price of 58 X 62, over 280 with a price of 50. X 55, and over 290 with a price of 46. X 49.0.

intrade.com

Kb

(n.b., last time I typed in the Bush futures I mistyped a digit, sorr-o. I've been more accurate this time.)