Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (20262)	10/19/2004 11:15:43 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

From Heinz: Tuesday, October 19, 2004 crude oil, addendum 2 it's incredible...but we keep hearing that the rise in crude oil prices is all the work of 'evil speculators', right? well, the total net speculative long position in NYMEX crude is a mere 5,000 contracts right now - that's right, out of open interest of 735,000 contracts, the funds hold a net long position of about 25,000 contracts, while the small speculators are now short a massive (for this category) 20,000 contracts net - making a total of 5,000 speculative net longs. compared to the contract's history, there's ample room for this position to grow - and i believe the speculative shorts WILL get killed before it's over. that said, when a contract price has moved into 'nosebleed' territory far above its various moving averages, you often get brief, but sharp corrections regardless of the net positioning of speculators. but the contrarian expectation from the positioning data alone should be that prices will go parabolic at some stage. in this context, note that the polyannas, including Greenspan, all hold fast to the opinion that high oil prices 'don't matter' and can neither harm the economy nor the stock market. this complacency is very disturbing, especially as corporate insiders continue unabated with their recent record net selling spree of stocks. my conclusion is that crude oil prices will rise UNTIL someone on Wall Street actually notices that this might be a bad thing for consumer spending as well as corporate profit margins. yes, yes....it IS a bad thing....it DOES matter. worldmarket.blogspot.com

To: ild who wrote (20262)	10/19/2004 11:49:52 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

I am guessing that MIs are being dragged down with the selloff in anything with the word "insurance" in it. F is the most interesting news this morning. They keep guiding up and I am having difficulty figuring where all this earning is coming from. Changing reserves? Playing with pension plan fundings as the SEC may be looking into now? WFC told the story about the drop in refi revenue. Wonder what is WM going to say tomorrow. But the biggest story is obviously the upcoming elections. What are the setups, before and after? If it looks like the tall guy is going to win, then the right move should be: SELL ALL LONG POSIITONS, INITIATE SHORTS, AND KEEP SHORTING. If it looks like the short guy is going to win: HOLD ALL LONGS. COVER SHORTS. SELL ALL AFTER ELECTIONS AND GO SHORT. Right?