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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (20292)	10/19/2004 3:46:33 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Tue Oct 19 2004 15:29 trotsky (thomas@Malthus) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved nevertheless, he seems to have been convinced that a growing stock of paper money is a 'good thing' "Hume was not the only economist who favored an increase in the stock of the currency, creating thereby a rationale for governmental involvement in monetary affairs. On similar grounds, Malthus and Mill contended that augmenting the stock of money stimulates capital accumulation in the economy." Malthus highlighted in the following article: click here ... mises.org Date: Tue Oct 19 2004 14:47 trotsky (mozel, 14:19) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved even if the international payments system were to completely break down ( and i'd argue that a lot of trades can still be made before THAT happens ) , there still would be a black market for dollars - so there definitely would be a way of determining the dollar's value relative to other currencies. i agree that government borrowing won't stop unless a stop is forced on it by exogenous circumstances ( a la Argentina ) . but imo the likely slowdown of private sector borrowing is a more important factor ( see Japan ) . i actually expect households to follow in the footsteps of corporations and begin to reverse their debt accumulation and begin to build up savings. that would leave government as the only borrower, and while it essentially prints up money that it issues to itself to proceed to distort the marketplace in the name of 'countercyclical' fiscal and monetary policy, it can not hope to successfully combat a credit contraction on the part of the private sector in the long run. it can merely hope to postpone the inevitable, much to all our detriment i might add. Date: Tue Oct 19 2004 14:23 trotsky (dan) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "obviously disproven"? how so? i note that Germany's population is bigger nowadays than during Hitler's time - and no new resources have magically appeared either. and yet, Germany is NOT at war right now. Malthusian 'resource constraints' have yet to make an appearance, although i concede that they might do so soon in oil. but oil is really an exception to the rule...other resources are more than plentiful. Malthus has failed so completely largely because he underestimated human ingenuity and the power of the market...regarding his dire predictions of the evils of 'overpopulation' he has been proven so utterly wrong ( note that the planet now supports 6.5 bn. humans - had you told Malthus about that, he'd have fallen off his chair ) that i agree it's not even worth discussing. Date: Tue Oct 19 2004 14:13 trotsky (@uptick) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "It should be explained that the overwhelming majority of large funds are simply “black box” traders, where a computer model dictates the trades. And, most of them rely on trend-following systems, where unlike a rational human trader; they continue to add to their positions as prices move in their favor. A rational human, who purchases gold, lets say at $400 per ounce, would recognize that at $410 the risk/reward analysis of the trade has changed, and would perhaps sell a bit of his position. This is the EXACT OPPOSITE of how most large funds trade. These funds continue to add and add to their positions, where by definition, they carry the largest long position at the very top of the market." no doubt it is true that many funds are 'black box' traders. but if uptick is correct that MOST of them are, then why is the speculative net long position in crude oil so small? the fund ( big spec ) net long position in crude was over 3 TIMES higher when it first crossed $40.