Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (53645)	10/19/2004 5:17:35 PM
From: redfish	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 81568

Yesterday's Gallup Poll Assumed Reduced Minority Vote From 2000, Greater Number Of Upper-End Conservative Voters Now that the Gallup Poll from yesterday has been blasted far and wide as proof that Bush has supposedly surged to an 8% lead over Kerry despite the debates, it is warranted to look a little closer at the composition of that likely voter sample that was used by Gallup this week to project that if the election was held this week, Bush would defeat Kerry 52%-44%. Remember that Gallup and other pollsters who refuse to weight their samples for party identification say that weighting samples to reflect demographic and census data is more reliable than using party ID as a factor. Yet after looking closely at the demographic breakdown of the sample that Gallup used to reach their conclusions, it becomes clear that Gallup has become the in-house pollster for Karl Rove and the GOP’s view of how the American voting populace should look. Why? Because according to Gallup’s poll this week, they expect the electorate to be 85% white, 41% conservative while only 19% liberal, and a third to make over $75,000 per year. Well, of course an electorate of that composition would vote for Bush by 8% over Kerry. But is that the electorate we’ll see this year? And does Gallup really believe that only 15% of those who go to the polls this year will be nonwhites, or are they privy to some inside information from the GOP about minority voter suppression that the rest of us don’t have? Gallup has been very forthcoming in responding to my requests for information, and they obviously stand behind their methodology and assumptions. But take a look at the demographic breakdown of this week's sample, and ask yourself how likely is this to replicate itself on Election Day, given the increases in registration this year? Total Weighted Sample: 557 Likely Voters (2000 exit poll actual results in parentheses) By Political Ideology: Conservative: 41% (29%) Moderate: 41% (50%) Liberal: 18% (20%) Party ID: GOP: 39% (35%) Dem: 35% (39%) Ind: 25% (27%) Income: Over $75,000: 32% (28%) $50-75,000: 16% (25%) $30-50,000: 26% (24%) $20-30,000: 11% Under $20K: 9% And if this wasn’t bad enough, Race: White: 85% (81%) NonWhite: 15% (19%) Black: (a subset of NonWhite) 8% (10%) I think those numbers speak for themselves. Gallup is using a sample that assumes 1) depressed minority participation this year from 2000, 2) assumes a drastically higher participation of conservatives as compared to 2000, and 3) predicts that Bush would win by 8% with that electorate. But in a gross example of political disinformation that is ideal for the White House and the GOP, these results were broadcast far and wide this week by a lazy and gullible media as representative of likely voters to show that John Kerry is losing support. theleftcoaster.com

To: stockman_scott who wrote (53645)	10/19/2004 6:31:36 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 81568

Scott: Senator Kerry has to be pleased by this. He's stated quite a few times he's proud of what he did after coming home from Vietnam and Sinclair is giving him free publicity. I think he'll even have true Congressional Medal of Honor war hero's speaking on the show. I'm surprised the Republican's aren't asking for equal time.

To: stockman_scott who wrote (53645)	10/19/2004 7:01:28 PM
From: Karen Lawrence	Respond to of 81568

Sinclair shares falling: Sinclair Says Won't Show Entire Anti-Kerry Film 3 minutes ago U.S. National - Reuters By Martha Graybow NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sinclair Broadcast Group Inc., the nation's largest owner of TV stations, said on Tuesday it would only air part of a documentary critical of Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites)'s Vietnam war record, as critics demanded it cancel the broadcast altogether or face legal action. Sinclair has drawn fire over its plans to air the 42-minute documentary "Stolen Honor: Wounds That Never Heal," about the Democratic presidential candidate on its more than 60 TV stations on Friday, less than two weeks before the Nov. 2 election. Furious Democrats have charged that the documentary was a blatant political statement disguised as news and have demanded equal air time from Sinclair, whose top executives have been major contributors to President Bush (news - web sites) and Republicans in recent years. Sinclair said it would not show the entire Kerry documentary, which accuses the senator of betraying fellow Vietnam veterans by testifying to Congress in 1971 against the war and about atrocities he said were committed by U.S. forces. Sinclair said it would air a special program on Friday called "A POW Story: Politics, Pressure and the Media" that includes a discussion of the allegations surrounding Kerry's anti-Vietnam War activities. "The experience of preparing to air this news special has been trying for many of those involved," the Baltimore, Maryland-based broadcaster said. "The company and many of its executives have endured personal attacks of the vilest nature, as well as calls on our advertisers and our viewers to boycott our stations and on our shareholders to sell their stock." Sinclair operates in 39 markets that include battleground states Florida and Ohio. KERRY CONTROVERSY Sinclair's shares have fallen amid the Kerry controversy and uncertain advertising revenues. Its stock has fallen almost 17 percent since its plans to air the show were first reported more than a week ago. The shares are down 58 percent in the year to date, and were off 3.5 percent to $6.26 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a powerful shareholder lawyer with strong ties to the Democratic party, San Diego-based William Lerach, accused three top Sinclair executives of insider trading and threatened to sue the company if its board of directors does not take legal action itself against the executives. Lerach, a Democratic Party fundraiser, said the accusations were not politically motivated and were spurred by requests from shareholder clients, including the pension fund for 1199 SEIU Greater New York, a health care workers union, to investigate Sinclair's recent stock declines. "We are equal opportunity suers," he said. Lerach accused Sinclair vice presidents Frederick G. Smith and J. Duncan Smith, and board member Robert E. Smith of selling thousands of shares of Sinclair in late 2003 and early 2004, just before shares began to fall. He said the accusations were based on studying publicly available documents of stock sales. story.news.yahoo.com