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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (53667)10/19/2004 7:04:27 PM
From: Karen LawrenceRespond to of 81568
 
According to Gallup’s poll this week, they expect the electorate to be 85% white, 41% conservative while only 19% liberal, and a third to make over $75,000 per year.

Well, of course an electorate of that composition would vote for Bush by 8% over Kerry. But is that the electorate we’ll see this year? And does Gallup really believe that only 15% of those who go to the polls this year will be nonwhites, or are they privy to some inside information from the GOP about minority voter suppression that the rest of us don’t have?

Gallup has been very forthcoming in responding to my requests for information, and they obviously stand behind their methodology and assumptions. But take a look at the demographic breakdown of this week's sample, and ask yourself how likely is this to replicate itself on Election Day, given the increases in registration this year?

theleftcoaster.com



To: stockman_scott who wrote (53667)10/19/2004 7:05:26 PM
From: ChinuSFORead Replies (1) | Respond to of 81568
 
In 2000, Zogby had called the poll to within +- 0.5%. This time around, along with Rasmussen, they are tracking this poll as dead even. The model for both these polls are similar and they vary from the other polls.

The key indicator is indeed the right track and wrong track and that is what the voters usually think about when they enter the polling booth, especially the undecideds. This is what Bill Schneider of CNN has said consistently.


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