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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (54479)10/19/2004 8:52:52 PM
From: Snowshoe  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
In the U.S. only about 3% of the electicity is generated by oil. But in China they've been running a lot of portable diesels to deal with the electricity shortage. Given China's low labor costs and escalating oil costs, solar panel manufacturing sounds like the way to go. It will also cut down on air pollution from burning diesel and coal.

A lot of research is being focused on improving the economics of solar panels. But oil is getting more expensive, and now China has to import coal.



To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (54479)10/19/2004 8:56:10 PM
From: Snowshoe  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Germany Opens World's Biggest Solar Plant
dw-world.de



To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (54479)10/19/2004 10:08:25 PM
From: Taikun  Respond to of 74559
 
Malcolm,

Solar is quite a bit more widespread now.

Solar panels have double digit ROI in states where there are:

1. incentives on the install
2.good sunlight
3. Expensive power or power vs drinking water issues

Think: CA, NV, UT (NV and CA offer ROI of 10%+, net of tax and after rebates and I have seen 15% on a commercial install on a building). Remember most of the panel makers also guarantee their panel for 90%+ on the rated output for 25 years or more. These are good investments.

ROI drops to 2-3% on a household system in WA state where I am and that incudes rebates and the utility buying power at market, but we have cheap hydro here. A very large home system might get you to 4% (all after tax)

For example: NJ has rebates but less sun.

Where I am many solar installers have gone to CA, NV. Imagine a $20k full solar system in WA state is $10k in NV, CA AND the power gets sold to the utility at 3x WA state rates AND efficiency (sunlight) is over 1.5x WA state.

Is is true that non-grid connected systems benefit from being able to avoid bringing the grid to, say, a remote lake with cottages. At $50,000/mile it makes sense for the homeowners to put in an IPP (Independent Power Plant) and run that IPP as a community or outsource to an aggregator of IPP power who finances and makes a return.

Due to the instability of a pure solar or wind or a hybrid solar and wind system there is usually a power generator fueled by diesel except in the most remote locations where truck access is impossible and then (think cell phone towers) there is a one-time install of deep charge batteries that can weather a very long patch of no wind or sun. These deep charge batteries are very expensive, so this is usually a last option.

The funny thing is that even in remote fishing lodges in Alaska or tourist lodges in Belize that the economics of running diesel are often better, but when environmental and fuel delivery parameters are considered the hybrid system is deployed. Solar and wind systems can require less maintenance and just like the cottages with no grid connection, if access is by float plane is virtually prohibitive for all but emergency fuel, a solar/wind system will be the preferred route, because most of the year, even in Alaska, you can generate solar (cloudy days are quite reflective as is the snow cover).

David