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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith Feral who wrote (148233)	10/19/2004 11:48:49 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

My principle objection to your line of thought is that I don't catch even the barest whiff of reduction of oil use in your reply. hat if they continue bidding up the price of energy to satisfy their growing demand for oil? Globalism may not stop with just the US and the West at the top of the food chain. Global demand for modernization is going to keep going in a generally forward direction. However, what if the rest of the world energy consumption is too low? What if they continue bidding up the price of energy to satisfy their growing demand for oil? Globalism may not stop with just the US and the West at the top of the food chain. Absolutely - other nations, China, India in particular, "want in". Relatively "cheap" (cost or accessible) energy makes it possible to grow economies. Technology and globalization have started a kind of a "resource race" - rather like the arms race of yesteryear. Who can gobble up the most, and secure the most, before it is all gone, wins. If you believe that, then you can imagine the potential future conflicts which may arise - and it won't only be Muslim states involved. If somehow consumption (or consumption increase) continues unabated without war or struggle beyond what is happening now, the Peak Oil theorists, if correct, will see the timeline of the oil peak simply move forward, but much faster. I can't say that my thinking isn't at least partially in their camp. I am not that scared of $2 a gallon for gas. What about 4 or 5 dollars or more?? Or more importantly, what about a sudden and dramatic dislocation in the value of the US $? This is a real concern of mine, and is not at all an absurd thought with the current account deficit in the shape its in - would also jack up oil costs domestically but also deliver a broad reaching impact on more than just the price of crude.