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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JBTFD who wrote (648402)	10/19/2004 11:45:42 PM
From: pompsander	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769667

From the Brits...a member of our alliance of the willing.(must be dissidents) Defence think-tank says Iraq is increasing global nuclear threat By Peter Spiegel in London Published: October 20 2004 03:00 \| Last updated: October 20 2004 03:00 The threat of nuclear pro-liferation by North Korea and Iran has increased over the past year and will probably get worse because of continued US difficulties in Iraq, a leading defence think-tank reported yesterday. The London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies found in its annual assessment of global security threats that the US's ever-deeper involvement in Iraq had emboldened Iran and North Korea to withstand western pressure to give up their nuclear ambitions. In its annual Military Balance report, the institute said that while future policy towards both countries was dependent on the outcome of next month's US presidential election, any incoming president would face few options to rein in their ambitions. "Motivations in Pyongyang and Tehran run deep, and the US and its allies may not have sufficient instruments of enticement or coercion to achieve disarmament," said John Chipman, IISS director. "In both cases, the threat of effective sanctions is difficult to realise and military options are unappealing." The report was similarly pessimistic about US and allied prospects in resolving the problems in Iraq. Christopher Langton, the study's main editor, said the US still had too few troops in Iraq to stabilise the country. He added that the future improvement was reliant on developing effective Iraqi forces, a process he believed had gone more slowly than expected. The study said the risk of terrorism against the west and western assets in the Middle East appeared to have increased since the Iraq invasion, particularly over the short term, as it had enabled al-Qaeda-linked organisations to increase recruitment. It estimated that as many as 1,000 foreign extremists were in Iraq, and that al-Qaeda maintained a "rump leadership" that oversaw as many as 18,000 potential terrorists. "Al-Qaeda middlemen can still provide planning and logistical advice, materiel and financing to smaller affiliated groups," Mr Chipman said. "The leadership still appears able to roughly influence the wider network's strategic direction." The conflict appears to have had the most effect on Iran, the report found, noting that shortly after the US-led invasion, Tehran agreed to suspend its uranium-enrichment programme and accept international inspectors - a stance it has since reversed. * Joschka Fischer, Germany's foreign minister, warned that Iran's development of nuclear capacity risked an arms race in the Middle East that would be "nothing short of a nightmare", writes Frederick Studemann. Speaking at the London School of Economics yesterday, he said the coming weeks before the November meeting of the International Atomic Energy Authority would be crucial in seeking to persuade the Iranian government to "freeze all relevant activities" that might lead to nuclear arms. Mr Fischer is involved in three-nation diplomacy with the UK and France designed to put pressure on Iran. He said the three would seek to co-ordinate with the US and Russia and draw up a deal to allow nuclear development in Iran that would stop short of nuclear weapons. news.ft.com