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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce L who wrote (21931)	10/20/2004 9:55:47 AM
From: Bruce L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Re: Russia's Putin and Japan's Koizumi Support Bush Just to highlight his comments made just a couple days ago, Putin said that terrorists organizations are targeting not the coalition but President Bush. Their goal is to inflict political damage to Bush to prevent his re-election. Only found in Stratfor XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX The Rewards and Risks of Supporting Bush Summary Russian President Vladimir Putin says militants in Iraq are trying to undermine U.S. President George W. Bush's re-election efforts. If they are successful, he warns, international terrorism could increase. Putin has emerged as one of the boldest international leaders in support of a Bush re-election, while other leaders walk delicate lines between their domestic constituents -- often opposed to Bush -- and the pressure and rewards from the United States. Analysis Russian President Vladimir Putin said Oct. 18 militants in Iraq are targeting the re-election campaign of U.S. President George W. Bush, and warned that terrorism would spread further around the world if the militants were successful. Putin's statement was one of the boldest yet by a foreign leader essentially calling for Bush's re-election. Speaking to reporters during a summit of the Central Asian Cooperation Organization (CACO) in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, Putin said, "Any unbiased observer understands that attacks of international terrorist organizations in Iraq, especially nowadays, are targeted not only and not so much against the international coalition as against President Bush." He added, "International terrorists have set as their goal inflicting the maximum damage to Bush, to prevent his election to a second term. If they succeed in doing that, they will celebrate a victory over America and over the entire anti-terror coalition. In that case, this would give an additional impulse to international terrorists and to their activities, and could lead to the spread of terrorism to other parts of the world." Putin is not alone among international leaders positioning for a Bush victory on Nov. 2. Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi was criticized for comments made Oct. 14 in response to reporters' questions about U.S. Sen. John Kerry pulling closer in the polls to Bush. Koizumi replied, "I don't want to interfere in an election in a foreign country, but I would like President Bush to hang in there because he is a close friend." Other Japanese officials, however, were less circumspect in their support for a Bush victory, noting that Kerry had proposed returning discussions with North Korea to a bilateral status, essentially removing Japan from the equation. Several other of the world's leaders also have demonstrated their expectation of a Bush victory -- if not in words, at least in actions -- even while their populations are largely seen as anti-Bush. This divergence between the political elite and the "common man" has caused strains in several states, most dramatically witnessed in the 2004 Spanish elections, but seen also in demonstrations and protests against participation in Iraq and cooperation with Bush in places such as South Korea, Pakistan, the United Kingdom, Poland, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan and Italy. This clash in views is unlikely to let up anytime soon. Conflicting pressures between domestic constituencies and ties, or troubles, with the United States create a delicate balance for aspiring and actual U.S. allies. For Putin and Koizumi, this is a fairly easy line to walk, as they are relatively secure in their positions. But Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf has faced a more difficult situation -- with much higher stakes. Musharraf is bracketed with assassination attempts against his person and U.S. forces poised along the border with Afghanistan. In the end, the leaders who are actively or tacitly supporting Bush will expect something in return. Putin, by commenting during the CACO summit, made it clear he wants the return of Russian influence to Central Asia -- unopposed by the United States. Musharraf is seeking backing for his decision to renege on giving up his uniform, and wants additional military and economic assistance.