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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (20368)	10/20/2004 5:20:28 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Hopefully we both end up in a better state than the penniless charity case who believed, "Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." . . . . . Yale economist Irving Fisher Even after the market decline was in full force, he added these words of wisdom, “The market is only shaking out of the lunatic fringe and prices still have not yet caught up with their real value and should go much higher." “Security values in most instances are not inflated.” “The nation is marching along a permanently high plateau of prosperity.”

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (20368)	10/20/2004 5:30:35 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 110194

Try on this Chinese Train Wreck statistic from the Financial Times yesterday. Time to repeg I'd say, and now, yesterday really: Global commodities prices have risen 43% over the past 12 months, but the prices of Chinese exports have gone up less than 2% over the same period, according to a story in the Financial Times. This story but I wonder? Look at all the industrial battleground states, would make George "happy", October surprise? He's gonna need Ohio: electoral-vote.com Bush gets no last-minute help from China Wednesday, October 20, 2004 9:28:16 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) - U.S. analysts hold out little hope that China will revalue its currency any time soon, and say the lack of action is surely a political disappointment to the Bush administration locked in tight races in the Midwest Speculation had increased that China might take some action to increase the value of its currency after the Group of Seven nations invited China to a meeting for the first time ever in early October. But after the confetti had been swept up and the chairs put away from the G7 party, it looks like there will be no change to China's foreign exchange strategy "It would be totally against the run of play if China did anything dramatic on the exchange rate side," said Desmond Lachman, a former chief emerging market economic strategist at Salomon Smith Barney, and now an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute The yuan has been pegged at 8.28 to the dollar since 1994. U.S. manufacturers and labor groups have complained that the yuan is unfairly weak, giving Chinese products a competitive advantage and moving U.S. production offshore The Bush administration has rejected congressional efforts to get tough with China on its currency, instead choosing a strategy of quiet diplomacy But this policy has not borne any fruit, analysts said Alex Kazan, senior currency analyst with the G7 Group, said the Bush administration is disappointed that China did not take even a small step to make their exchange rate more flexible, by either widening the band or pegging the currency to a basket of currencies instead of the dollar "I'm sure there was mild disappointment that China didn't take a small step in a way that would have been perceived as responding to the pressure that the U.S. and the G-7 had put on China over the past year," Kazan said Political impact This lack of any tangible progress may be hurting Bush in the key swing state of Ohio and other Midwestern states Business and labor leaders throughout Ohio feel that Washington is doing nothing to stem the tide of outsourcing jobs and production to China, said Richard D'Amato, the chair of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission "The general feeling was that they are being thrown to the wolves," D'Amato said. A recent study sponsored by the U.S. China Economic and Security panel found that the Midwest has seen the most jobs shifted overseas. The region has lost over 18,000 jobs in the first three months of this year, the study found. Rick Farmer, an associate professor of political science at the University of Akron, said the Ohio economy is lagging the national economy and "outsourcing is symbolic of that problem." "The political effect is that Ohio's economy is dragging behind the rest of the country and that may very well be what is pulling Bush's number's down in Ohio," Farmer said Lachman said that if the Bush administration couldn't get China to strengthen its currency before the election, then the United State has no hope in moving them after the election, no matter who wins "The Chinese can do this in their own sweet time," Lachman said Quotable: "Nonlinearity means that the act of playing the game has a way of changing the rules." James Gleick, Chaos: Making of a New Science