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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (13787)	10/21/2004 1:06:06 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

thanks My guess, If the US keeps hiking Canada will keep hiking I think there is 1 more coming in the US Mish

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (13787)	10/21/2004 1:57:45 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Higher oil prices to weigh on Australian GDP growth, increase inflation - RBA Thursday, October 21, 2004 5:50:44 AM afxpress.com SYDNEY (AFX) - Higher world oil prices are likely to weigh on Australia's economic growth and put pressure on inflation over the near term, but the effects here are likely to be less pronounced than in other parts of Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia said in its monthly bulletin. The RBA pointed out that several factors would suggest that the output implications of the most recent rise in oil prices, if they are sustained for a reasonable period, will be less serious than was the case in the two oil crises which occurred in the 1970s. It noted the current level of oil prices is not as high in real terms as at the peak after the second OPEC oil shock and nor has the latest rise been as rapid or pronounced as in the earlier episodes, while the energy intensity of aggregate world output is markedly lower than it was in the 1970s. "Perhaps most importantly, the latest episode of higher oil prices reflects significant demand-side pressures, being associated with growth in the world economy at around the highest rates in nearly 30 years, and the emergence of China and other Asian economies as major consumers of oil," the central bank said. In contrast, the RBA noted price increases in the 1970s were linked to pure supply-side shocks, "with entirely unfavourable implications for output" For Australia, the direct effects of rising oil prices are likely to be less contractionary than for most other industrial countries and its trading partners, it said. While Australia is a small net importer of oil, it is a substantial and growing net exporter of natural gas, the price of which is partly linked to the price of oil, and if oil prices remain high, it could be expected that prices for other energy sources such as coal would also increase, the RBA said "Since Australia is a substantial net energy exporter, the overall effect of higher energy prices would be to boost Australia's terms of trade, representing a net transfer of income to Australia from abroad," the RBA said. But it said higher oil prices will flow through to consumers at the gasoline pump, lowering the amount of disposable income available for other expenditure. The central bank also noted demand for exports would slow if global growth was adversely affected by higher oil prices, consequently dampening Australian GDP growth. "Overall then, the likely effect of higher global oil prices would be to reduce Australian GDP growth in the short run compared with what it would otherwise have been," the RBA said, but added that effects will not be as pronounced as they might be in other countries The central bank also noted movements in fuel prices have had a significant effect on inflation over the past year, contributing 0.4 percentage points to consumer price index inflation over the year to the June quarter. "Given the additional increases in world oil prices since the June quarter, CPI inflation on a four-quarter-ended basis will continue to be significantly affected by changes in petrol prices over the year ahead," the RBA said. It said there has also been some evidence of second-round price effects in the recent period, but to date, they have been quite limited. "For example, recent increases in ticket prices for international and domestic air travel will add marginally to CPI inflation," the central bank said. However, it said second-round effects appear likely to be contained, though the risk of more significant effects on wage and price expectations would obviously increase if oil prices continue to rise

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (13787)	10/21/2004 7:27:42 PM
From: abuelita	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

cat- Beef ? I've been eating a lot... it's cheap these days here .. really? not in my neck of the woods. i just passed on a couple of rib steaks .... over $30.00/kg. too rich for me. but someone's making a lot of money. -rose

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (13787)	10/22/2004 12:31:28 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

China scores gains in controlling inflation, economic growth - analysts Friday, October 22, 2004 3:55:37 AM afxpress.com BEIJING (AFX) - China has scored gains in reining in inflation and cooling economic growth, analysts said Third quarter GDP growth dropped to 9.1 pct from 9.6 pct in the first half, while the CPI eased slightly to 5.2 pct in September from 5.3 pct in August "This is the result we wanted," JP Morgan economist Ben Simpfendorfer told XFN-Asia While CPI growth has slowed slightly, prices are unlikely to fall significantly in the coming months, he added "It doesn't change the basic story that we're in for a higher price environment. Expect to see some decent-sized monthly CPI figures in the coming months, in the range of four to five pct. Don't expect them to drop much below that." Huang Yi Ping, an economist at Citigroup, said the slowdown in GDP growth will ease pressure on the government to take more drastic measures to cool the economy "Overall I think (GDP) still represents very strong growth despite the tightening policies introduced," Huang said "There is probably less need for further tightening economic policy (as the data point to) slowing investment." China has already taken a number of administrative measures to slow the rise in prices and control what it sees as overheating sectors of the economy. But some economists have expressed concern that China's prices could still move sharply higher, under pressure from the mounting cost of imported crude oil as well as rising domestic grain prices Tim Condon, China Economist at ING in Singapore, described the figures as "very market friendly", adding that they would reduce pressure on the government to revalue the currency "On balance, they will take some of the pressure off the currency debate in the sense that the decline in inflation argues against the need for revaluation for inflation control purposes," Condon said Some economists have argued that China needs to revalue its currency in order to reduce pressure on prices from mounting money supply Under China's existing currency regime, foreign exchange earned by exporters is sold to the central bank which then has to create 8.3 yuan for each US dollar it purchases, thereby expanding the money supply. (1 usd = 8.3 yuan) ======================================================= I am amazed at this BS everyone thinks it is significant that China drops from 9.6 to 9.1, but HUGE pullbacks over the past several months on leading indicators, jobs, etc etc ect here is just a "soft patch" Amazing horesh*t Mish

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (13787)	10/22/2004 9:06:12 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

NZ Weekly economic report www1.asbbank.co.nz

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (13787)	10/22/2004 9:27:31 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Sterling falls after weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP data Friday, October 22, 2004 9:10:23 AM afxpress.com LONDON (AFX) - The pound dropped after GDP figures for the third quarter came in weaker than forecasts, with economic growth slowing to its lowest rate since the first quarter of 2003 due to weak industrial output In its preliminary estimate of third quarter GDP growth, the office of National Statistics said the economy grew by 0.4 pct in the third quarter from the previous quarter, against expectations of a 0.5 pct increase Today's figures are down substantially on the 0.9 pct growth recorded in the second quarter and are likely to cement expectations that the Bank of England will not raise interest rates again this year At 9.45 am, the pound dropped to 1.8256 against the dollar from 1.8281 just before the data was released, while the euro rose to 0.6917 stg from 0.6906 The slower growth during the third quarter was mainly due to a 1.1 pct fall in the output of the production industries following a 1.2 pct increase in the second quarter, NS said The report was particularly disappointing after yesterday's much stronger-than-expected retail sales numbers for September, which had led to optimism in the market that today's GDP numbers could come in above forecasts Investec economist David Page said today's report is all about weak manufacturing, describing the 1.1 pct drop in industrial output -- against Investec's forecasts for a fall of 0.9 pct -- as "catastrophic" "The industrial output numbers were particularly grim and were worse than we had been led to believe from the survey evidence," he said

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (13787)	10/22/2004 9:30:53 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK Q3 GDP up 0.4 pct from previous quarter, lowest since Q1 2003 Friday, October 22, 2004 8:50:29 AM afxpress.com LONDON (AFX ) - UK economic growth in the third quarter slowed down to its lowest rate since the first quarter of 2003 in the wake of weak industrial production, official figures showed today In its preliminary estimate of third quarter GDP growth, the office of National Statistics said the economy grew by 0.4 pct in the third quarter from the previous quarter, against expectations of a 0.5 pct increase That was substantially down on the 0.9 pct growth recorded in the second quarter and is likely to cement expectations that the Bank of England will not raise interest rates again this year A raft of weak economic data in recent weeks has convinced most Bank watchers that the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee will keep its key repo rate unchanged at 4.75 pct at November's rate-setting meeting The MPC has raised the cost of borrowing a quarter point on five occasions since last November in an attempt to curb inflationary pressures stemming from rampant consumer demand and above-trend economic growth Trend growth -- the rate of growth that does not stoke price pressures -- is assumed by the Bank of England to be around 0.6 pct on a quarterly basis and 2.5 pct on a year-on-year basis This is the first time since the first quarter of 2003, when the economy grew a modest a 0.2 pct, that it has not growth above its trend rate on a quarterly basis On a year-on-year basis, GDP was up 3.0 pct, lower than analysts' expectations of a 3.2 pct increase and the previous quarter's 3.6 pct growth That was the lowest year-on-year rate since the fourth quarter of 2003, when the economy grew by 2.9 pct The statistics office said the slower growth during the third quarter was mainly due to a 1.1 pct fall in the output of the production industries following a 1.2 pct increase in the second quarter The main influences behind the quarterly decline were output falls in manufacturing output and mining and quarrying. These more than offset increases in electricity, gas and water supply Industrial production accounts for around 22 pct of the UK economy Service sector output, which accounts for around 72 pct of the economy, held up better though, increasing by 0.8 pct, slightly lower than the 0.9 pct recorded in the second quarter Within services, distribution, hotels and restaurants, which accounts for around 16 pct of the UK economy, saw output rise by 0.7 pct, down from the 1.2 pct recorded in the second quarter Elsewhere, the statistics office said it estimated that construction output was "broadly in line" with the 0.6 pct rise recorded in the second quarter Construction output represents just less than 6 pct of the UK economy The next estimate of third quarter GDP will be published on November 26