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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (13793)	10/21/2004 8:37:46 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK prices quote.bloomberg.com The retail sales deflator, which measures prices in stores, fell 1.6 percent in September after a 1.5 percent drop in August. The deflator was last positive in January 2002. Original release (pdf) here: statistics.gov.uk

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (13793)	10/21/2004 8:45:53 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML), whose members provide 98 per cent of all mortgages, said gross lending suffered its first annual fall for four years during September. "Lending is slowing markedly," said Michael Coogan, the director general of the CML telegraph.co.uk

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (13793)	10/21/2004 8:51:48 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. initial jobless claims fall 25,000 to 329,000 By Rex Nutting WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - First-time seasonally adjusted claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 25,000 to 329,000 in the week ending Oct. 16, the Labor Department reported Thursday. It's the lowest level in six weeks. A Labor Department spokesman noted that initial claims are often volatile during holiday weeks, despite attempts to adjust the data. The less-volatile four-week average of new claims dropped by 5,500 to 348,250, the lowest in three weeks. The number of former workers continuing to collect state unemployment checks fell by 8,000 in the week ending Oct. 9 to 2.798 million, the lowest in three months. =================================================== no reaction in treasuries or eurodollars Mish

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (13793)	10/21/2004 8:57:36 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. housing market index slips to 68 in September By Rex Nutting WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. homebuilders' assessment of the market for new homes slipped in September, the National Association of Home Builders said Monday. The NAHB housing market index fell to 68 in September from 71 in August. All three components of the index dipped in September, but all were near levels seen in July and over the past 12 months. "Builders are still reporting healthy demand for new homes across most markets, and that bodes well for sales in coming months," said David Seiders, chief economist for the builders group.

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (13793)	10/21/2004 8:58:48 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK banks hit as rate rise worry returns; Morrison jumps Thursday, October 21, 2004 11:24:38 AM reuters.com By Steve Slater LONDON, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Britain's top shares fell to a three-week low on Thursday after an early jump on the back of positive corporate news failed to gather momentum and stronger-than-expected UK retail sales data reawakened concern that more interest rate rises may be needed [nL21207532] and rattled banks. Food retailer William Morrison <MRW.L> bucked the gloom, however, and jumped 9 percent as optimism grew that it can successfully turn around sales at its new Safeway [nL20366310] stores, while drug giant AstraZeneca <AZN.L> perked up after reporting robust earnings growth [nL21432061]. By 1105 GMT the FTSE 100 share index was down 21.9 points, or 0.5 percent, at 4,594.3. The index hit 4,642.3 in early trading, but reversed almost 50 points to its lowest level since Oct. 1, as high oil prices and lingering jitters about the U.S. economic recovery continued to weigh. Data showing UK retail sales rose 1 percent in September, the highest monthly rise since January and five times the forecast growth, unsettled the market by renewing the threat that UK interest rates may need to rise up again. "The (economic) data are still mixed but those who were hoping that 4.75 percent was going to be the peak of the interest-rate cycle are probably finding that view less easy to argue," said Alex Scott, analyst at Seven Investment Management. "The retail data are probably the strongest piece of news we've had recently," he added. The threat of a rate rise hit banks hardest, and the sector shook 13 points off the FTSE as Northern Rock <NRK.L>, Barclays <BARC.L>, Lloyds TSB <LLOY.L> and HBOS <HBOS.L> all lost over 1 percent. Insurer Prudential <PRU.L> continued its descent in the wake of Tuesday's shock 1-billion-pound rights issue, and it shed another 2.8 percent. SAFEWAY TURNAROUND? The strong sales were more supportive for retailers, however, and helping clothing chain Marks & Spencer <MKS.L> add 1.6 percent. Morrison shares hit their highest level since a profit-warning in July and were up 17-3/4 pence at 212p after news the grocer was successfully converting some Safeway stores [nL20366310] offset a further fall in sales at remaining Safeway-branded outlets. Sales at converted Safeway stores were up 13 percent from a year before. "The good news comes from the integrated Safeway stores," said Iain McDonald, analyst at brokerage Numis Securities. "We believe Morrison has a strong management and will be successful at integrating Safeway stores to the Morrison sales-driven brand. Cost margins at Morrison are lower than at Safeway, so this will provide further synergies to the combined group." ABN AMRO, Morrison's house broker, said it was encouraged by the update and repeated its "buy" stance and 300p price target on Morrison shares. AstraZeneca added 1.8 percent after posting a 17 percent rise in third-quarter earnings to provide a glimmer of good news following the U.S. rejection of its big new drug hope Exanta. The company said it expected full-year earnings per share to be around $2.10, within its previously indicated $2.00 to $2.15 range, despite taking a charge against its Exanta stock. But Allied Domecq <ALLD.L>, the world's second-biggest spirits firm, dipped 1 percent after a 6 percent rise in its annual profit was in line with analysts' expectations. Mid-cap radio firms moved in opposite directions following the latest audience share data. Capital Radio <CAP.L> added 2 percent after its flagship 95.8 FM extended its lead as London's top commercial station in the third quarter, but its main rival, Chrysalis Group <CHS.L>, lost 3.5 percent after its Heart 106.2 FM lost market share.

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (13793)	10/21/2004 9:13:28 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

AT&T reports $7.1 billion loss Thursday, October 21, 2004 11:57:17 AM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) -- AT&T said Thursday it lost $7.1 billion in the third quarter, reflecting the company's write-down of the value of its traditional long-distance network in addition to one-time expenses tied to its latest round of layoffs. Sales fell nearly 12 percent to $7.6 billion from a year earlier, though revenue was flat when compared with the prior second quarter, AT&T said. Wall Street was expecting sales of around $7.33 billion For the third quarter, AT&T reported a net loss of $7.1 billion, or $8.95 a share, compared with income of $418 million, or 53 cents, a year ago. Earlier this month, the company unveiled plans to write down its network and cut an additional 7,000 jobs Excluding $12.5 billion one-time charges, the company earned $593 million, or 75 cents a share. That figure included a tax benefit of 42 cents a share Earlier this month, AT&T said it would eliminate more jobs and write down its network assets by $11.4 billion as it tries to cut costs and reorganize amid a retreat from the consumer phone business. The latest round of layoffs resulted in a onetime expense of $1.1 billion, the company said AT&T recently decided to stop marketing phone service to consumers, citing a series of regulatory setbacks that have made it more difficult to service those accounts During the third quarter, consumer revenue dropped 15 percent to $2 billion from a year earlier. The company's corporate-services segment experienced a 10 percent decline in sales to $5.6 billion, though revenue held steady from the prior second quarter. AT&T has been under siege for several years as new competitors enter the long-distance market and prices for phone service have fallen. It's now focusing on its corporate-services business and exploring alternative consumer technologies such as Internet phone service Long-distance rivals MCI and Sprint have adopted a similar approach. Both of those companies also wrote down the value of their long-distance networks this month. By doing so, the carriers can cut amortization expenses and thereby boost reported earnings. On Wednesday, shares of AT&T rose 10 cents to $15.58

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (13793)	10/21/2004 9:34:10 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Euro Gains to 8-Month High; Ministers Favor Stronger Currency Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The euro rose to an eight-month high against the dollar after European finance ministers said they favor a stronger currency amid rising commodity prices. Gains in the currency will ease the impact of the record price of oil, which is denominated in U.S. dollars, said Dutch Finance Minister Gerrit Zalm. French Finance Minister Nicolas Sarkozy said ``a strong currency is better when commodity prices are high,'' after a meeting of European ministers in Luxembourg. ``The market is getting the message that there is going to be absolutely no problem in terms of the euro's strength,'' said Kurt Magnus, head of foreign-exchange sales at Westpac Banking Corp. in London. Against the dollar, the euro rose to its highest since Feb. 25 and traded at $1.2619 at 10:45 a.m. in London, from $1.2590 late yesterday in New York, according to EBS, an electronic foreign-exchange dealing system. The dollar fell to 107.74 yen, from 108.25, after dropping to its weakest since June 28. ``It's not an issue,'' Zalm said of the single European currency's advance. Any further gain in the euro to a record $1.30 would be ``good for oil prices,'' he said in Luxembourg. Crude oil futures traded at $54.39 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. They reached a record $55.33 on Oct. 18. ``We appear to be in a situation where policy makers for now at least are happy enough to see their currencies rise'' to help offset higher commodity prices, said Aziz McMahon, a currency strategist at ABN Amro Holding NV. ``It allows the euro more upside.'' `Adds Momentum' The yen also rose to the highest in almost four months against the dollar after a government report showed Japanese exports surged to a record. The 12.5 percent gain in shipments abroad boosted speculation the country's economy may extend a five-quarter expansion. ``It adds to the momentum of the yen,'' said Marios Maratheftis, a currency strategist in London at Standard Chartered Plc. ``The Japanese economy is still in healthy shape.'' The yen may gain to 105 per dollar by year-end, he said. So far this week, the dollar is down 1.4 percent against the euro and 1.7 percent versus the yen amid concern about waning demand from foreign investors for U.S. financial assets. Japanese authorities will closely watch movements in exchange rates after this week's gains in the yen, Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said, according to Reuters. ``We would like to monitor moves carefully,'' said Tanigaki, Reuters reported. ``I don't think fundamentals have changed greatly for now.'' `Very Vulnerable' Investors outside the U.S. bought a net $59 billion of Treasuries, stocks, corporate bonds and other securities in August, the least in 10 months, the Treasury Department said. ``The dollar looks very vulnerable,'' said Yusuke Fujisawa in Tokyo at Dai-Ichi Kangyo Asset Management, which invests the equivalent of $17 billion. ``Nothing appears to be coming to the rescue of the dollar for now.'' The U.S. currency may drop to 107.50 yen and $1.27 per euro this week, he said. The last time the euro headed toward $1.30, European finance ministers, central bankers and prime ministers united to warn that an appreciating currency would short-circuit the economy's recovery from the weakest growth in a decade. At the time, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet denounced ``brutal'' moves in foreign exchange markets. The currency retreated without the ECB having to buy dollars to push the euro down. Ministers' comments this week are ``a different story from what we heard a year ago,'' said McMahon. The euro rose to a record $1.2930 on Feb. 18. Growth Concern Japan's former vice-minister for international affairs Eisuke Sakakibara said the dollar will probably fall to 100 yen on concern over the U.S. economy, Dow Jones Newswires reported. The U.S. economy is vulnerable to a negative shock and its officials appear to be too optimistic about the potential for growth given record oil prices, Sakakibara told Dow Jones in an interview. His office confirmed the interview. Losses in the dollar may extend amid concern U.S. economic growth may slow, said Harvinder Kalirai, market analyst in Sydney at State Street Corp., the world's largest custodian of assets with more than $1.2 trillion under management. ``The dollar's going to weaken and hit new lows,'' Kalirai said. ``The soft patch in the U.S. is continuing and that's a downgrade of future growth expectations.'' The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators probably fell for a fourth month in September, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. A separate report may show the pace of U.S. manufacturing growth in the Philadelphia region increased for the first time since July. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve bank's index may gain to 18 in October from 13.4 the previous month, according to a Bloomberg poll. The dollar fell 0.7 percent against the euro and 0.4 percent versus the yen on Oct. 15 after a similar gauge from the New York Fed bank declined more than expected this month. Fed Governor Ben Bernanke, who votes on interest-rate policy, will speak today on oil and the economy in Albany, Georgia. The U.S. consumes a fifth of the world's oil. quote.bloomberg.com

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (13793)	10/21/2004 9:46:23 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Ebay is a compelling investment EBay upgraded by Smith Barney, price target raised (EBAY) By Tomi Kilgore NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- EBay (EBAY) was upgraded to "buy" from "hold" by Smith Barney, which said the stock represented a "compelling" investment opportunity. Analyst Lanny Baker raised his stock price target to $115 from $80. The stock was last up $6.26, or 6.9 percent, at $97.62 in Instinet pre-open trading after the online auction company reported late Wednesday earnings and revenue that topped analyst forecasts.

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (13793)	10/21/2004 9:47:22 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Sterling gets boost from stronger than expected UK data Thursday, October 21, 2004 9:17:53 AM afxpress.com LONDON (AFX) - The pound got a boost from unexpectedly strong UK data, which revived to some extent expectations that the next interest rate move from the Bank of England will be a hike after all The data has enabled the pound to catch up on rises against the dollar it was not able to make over the past few days, said Adrian Foster at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein The dollar has been on the decline all week but the pound's gains on the US currency have been limited by weakness in UK economic numbers and speculation that the next move from the central bank will be to cut interest rates "Sterling had so far underperformed," said Foster Data out this morning revealed that high street spending rose at its fastest rate since January despite anecdotal and survey evidence suggesting that higher borrowing costs have been taking their toll The office of National Statistics said retail sales in September increased by 1.0 pct from the previous month, substantially higher than the 0.2 pct rise predicted by analysts, who had been expecting moderate growth in light of recent data On a year-on-year basis, retail sales were 6.9 pct higher against expectations of a 5.9 pct rise The numbers put back on radar the prospect of a UK rate hike early next year, said Foster Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec Securities agreed, saying the data backs up his prediction that there will be another quarter point hike in the first few months of 2005 "The retail sales data were a major surprise and are at odds with our interpretation of the surveys," he said Still, analysts said the data is unlikely to alter market perceptions that the BoE will keep the cost of borrowing unchanged in November given the housing market slowdown and weakness in the global economic recovery At 9.58 am, the pound was at 1.8290 usd from 1.8249 ahead of the data while the euro slipped to 0.6904 stg from 0.6924 stg