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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (13814)	10/21/2004 11:26:15 AM
From: RealMuLan	Respond to of 116555

Pinning down China's GDPby Economist Carsten Holz 21.10.2004Economist Carsten Holz from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology assesses the reliability of China's GDP figures. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As the world's most populous country and the fastest growing major economy, China is a nation that revels in statistical comparison. But throughout its 55-year history, communist China's economic statistics have not had a great reputation for accuracy. Recently, the government quietly revised its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figure for last year – upwards. China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had previously said the nation's GDP for 2003 was 9.1 per cent. But in its just published yearbook, the Bureau has changed the figure to 9.3 per cent – a rise of 0.2 of a per cent. No explanation has been given, or is likely. Data check Economist Carsten Holz from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology recently examined China's GDP data to see just how reliable the figures were. Professor Holz attempted to reconstruct the private consumption figures over the years using available official underlying data. He then checked how well the reconstructed data matched with official figures, as a double check on the GDP growth rates. abc.net.au ======================== How China's National Bureau of Statistics deals with the wide-spread exaggeration of GDP growth reported by local officials? The rule of thumb: they usually deduct 2% from local reported number. And considering the wide-spread underground economy in China which is excluded from GDP figure, so maybe the official result should not be too far off<g>