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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Paul Senior who wrote (19935)10/22/2004 2:06:41 PM
From: Grommit  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78715
 
IIIN. well, it certainly is worth looking at.

I am nervous about it however because of a few things. I am skeptical and maybe overly cautions. Prob the main reason is that the stock price increased so dramatically over the past year, and I did not participate in it. Some devil's advocate questions, and observations:

1. $1.6 million of income in the year was non-recurring.
2. No projections or outlook provided.
3. A lot(?) of the profitability this year was inventory write-ups due to raw material price increases (I think.)
4. Discussions in the conf call were positive but some talk of "volatility" and "price collapse". All risks were discounted.
5. I wonder if it is too good to be true.
6. Outlook talked of capital spending and the non-commodity products, which all sounded good.
7. Did not find any insider selling.

I need to think on this one. Any help would be appreciated. Number 2 really bothers me.

grommit



To: Paul Senior who wrote (19935)10/23/2004 7:40:35 AM
From: FHM  Respond to of 78715
 
finally had the opportunity this a.m. to listen carefully to the CC, and would highlight the following points, FWIW:

1. based upon mgmt's characterization of the current pricing environment as having "stabilized," I would argue that the 23.4% gross margin in Q4 represents a reasonable forecasting variable for future earnings -- although I would also note that the supply disruptions that IIIN continued to experience in Q4 (although substantially less disruptive than in Q3) should continue to ameliorate -- a further positive

2. beginning in Feb 2005, the quarterly amortization expense ($800 K) associated with the terminated swap agreement(s) will have been purged from the corporate books, thereby beefing up the bottom line (a not insubstantial bit)

3. with free cash flow of $27.8 M for the year, and total LT of $52.9 M, IIIN is well on its way to eliminating its LT debt; H specifically identified "debt reduction" as "a paramount concern for [IIIN]"

4. w/r/t the anticipated TEA-21 reauthorization, a few points to underscore: (a) expected to hit in first half of 2005; (b) it will most likely represent a SIGNIFICANT increase in spending of 35-45% over and above the most recent spending levels; and (c) "we would view this as quite a favorable outcome for our industry that should provide a solid foundation for demand for concrete reinforcing products going forward"

5. IIIN has experienced "strong customer support" for its ESM product offerings, which continue to garner a greater percentage of the company's sales (although it still represents less than 10% of total co. sales at this juncture)

6. IIIN has "high expectations for 2005"

7. even if the demand foreseen in 2005 and 2006 does not materialize (an unlikely scenario), the cap ex expenditures will more than pay for themselves in enhanced efficiencies

GREAT COMPANY, GREAT VISION, GREAT CALL

I have a full position and am quite content to sit on it for a year or two