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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Roads End who wrote (79801)10/22/2004 2:44:53 PM
From: KyrosL  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793999
 
The cellular phone only voting block is represented in the polls and always has been.

This article seems to contradict this:

World of the wireless stymies political pollsters
Those who use only cell phones difficult to track for surveys


"The surging number of people who are "cutting the cord," abandoning wired telephone lines for cellular phones, is suddenly presenting political pollsters with a vexing problem -- the prospect that their surveys may be undercounting younger voters in this election who have decamped for a wireless lifestyle.

The American Association for Public Opinion Research, a trade group representing professional pollsters, is so concerned that it has run seminars on the subject this year. The federal government, one of the most voracious users of polling data, has conducted in-depth research to learn more about the growing number of cell phone-only people, who are excluded from traditional polls.

..."

Full article here:

sfgate.com



To: Roads End who wrote (79801)10/22/2004 4:32:57 PM
From: DMaA  Respond to of 793999
 
Fully 50% of the people contacted by pollsters refuse to answer any questions. Now if the results are scientific, and the sample they take accurately represents the whole, then the results of their polls tell us that half the population of the country is a black box to pollsters.

I have no idea how pollsters attempt scientifically to control for the growing number of people who deliberately lie to pollsters.

It is pretty impressive that scotty personally knows how 120 million new voters are going to vote.