TIME Poll: Bush Opens 5 Point Lead Against Kerry
Among likely voters, 51% support Bush, 46% support Kerry, and 2% support Nader
Friday, Oct. 22, 2004
President Bush has opened a 5 point lead against Senator John Kerry, according the latest TIME poll. If the 2004 election for President were held today, 51% of likely voters surveyed would vote for President George W. Bush, 46% would vote for Senator John Kerry, and 2% would vote for Ralph Nader, according to the TIME poll conducted by telephone from Oct. 19 – 21. Among all registered voters surveyed, Bush leads Kerry 50% to 43%.
Last week’s TIME poll found 48% of likely voters would vote for Bush, 47% would vote for Kerry, and 3% would vote for Nader. That poll was conducted Oct. 14-15 and included 865 likely voters.
Poll results will appear in the upcoming issue of TIME magazine, on newsstands Monday, Oct. 25. See methodology below for margin of error and sample size information.
Approval Rating: Bush’s approval rating has risen to 53%, with 44% saying they disapprove of how he is handling his job. That is a four-point improvement over just last week, when Bush’s negatives were even with his positives. In last week’s TIME poll, the President’s approval rating was at 49% approving and 49% disapproving of the way he was handling his job.
Other poll results among registered voters include:
Terrorism Tied with Economy as Top Issue:
The war on terror is tied with the economy as the most important issue in the election, with 24% of registered voters saying terrorism is the most important issue and 24% saying the economy is the most important issue. Iraq was the top issue for 18% of respondents, followed by health care (14%) and moral values (14%), according to the poll.
Kerry Loses Ground on the Economy, Health Care, War on Terrorism, Gender:
The Economy: When asked who they trust more to handle the economy, 46% of registered voters said they trusted Bush, while 45% said they trusted Kerry. In last week’s TIME poll, almost half (49%) trusted Kerry, while 43% trusted Bush more to handle the economy.
Health Care: When asked who they trust more to handle health care, 46% said they trust Kerry more, while 42% said they trust Bush. This is a five point drop for Kerry from last week’s TIME poll, when over half (51%) trusted Kerry more to handle health care, and 38% trusted Bush.
War on terrorism: Over half (56%) of those surveyed trust Bush more to handle the war on terrorism, while 37% trust Kerry more to handle the war on terrorism. Last week the gap was more narrow, with Bush at 51% and Kerry at 40%.
Gender: Women are now evenly split, with 46% favoring Kerry and 46% favoring Bush. Two weeks ago, TIME’s poll found 50% of respondents favored Kerry and 42% favored Bush. Among men, this week’s TIME poll found Bush leads among men 54% to 39% for Kerry.
Iraq:Over half (51%) trust Bush more to handle the situation in Iraq, while 41% trust Kerry more.
Favorables of Bush, Kerry: When asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Bush, 51% say they have a favorable opinion of the President, while 42% have an unfavorable opinion of him.
When asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Senator Kerry, 45% say they have a favorable opinion of the Senator, while 42% have a unfavorable opinion of him.
Methodology: The TIME magazine poll was conducted by telephone October19-21, 2004 among a random sample of 1,200 adults throughout America. The random sample includes 1,059 reported registered voters and 803 likely voters. Likely voter figures include leaners and exclude refusals. The margin of error for registered voters is approximately +/-3 percentage points. The margin of error for likely voters is approximately +/- 4% points.
Likely voters reported party identifications are: 35% Democrat, 35% Republican, 23% Independents. Registered voters party affiliations are: 35% Democrat, 33% Republican, 23% Independent.
Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found at: www.srbi.com.
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