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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (80152)	10/23/2004 2:22:36 PM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 794156

Hawaii Update - Daly thoughts dalythoughts.com Hawaii Electoral Votes: 4 2000 Result Gore 55% Bush 37% Background: Since McKinley annexed Hawaii and it became a state, only twice has it gone Republican: Nixon’s re-election against McGovern and Reagan’s re-election against Mondale. It has rarely been close. Polling Data: Date Polling Company Link Type MOE Republican Democrat Margin 8/3/04 SMS Research Link 685 RV 4% Bush 41% Kerry 48% Kerry +7 9/11/04 American Research Group Link 600 LV 4% Bush 41% Kerry 51% Kerry +10 10/18/04 Ward Research Link 600 LV 4% Bush 43.3% Kerry 42.6% Bush +0.7 Punditry: I joked yesterday about Battleground Hawaii. Maybe it was no joke; Hawaii does have a history of supporting incumbents, and one of the more surprising recent elections was Republican Linda Lingle winning the Governorship of the island paradise. I still think that my readers should pool together and send my wife and I there to do some on-location analysis. In eight polls tracked by OurCampaigns, Ward Research has shown no tendency to favor one side or the other; on average they have overstated Democrats by 0.6 and Republicans by 0.8 (at the expense of third parties). It is hard for me to believe, but Hawaii is in play. This makes for a very tough designation, as it is likely that this is the final poll we will get for the state, and as such will effect the ECB the rest of the way. Leaning towards Kerry seems to strong a designation, and slight advantage for Kerry seems to weak of one. But that’s what I have to choose between. In 2000, they did well nailing the final margin: A Hawai’i Poll just before the 2000 election had Democrat Al Gore ahead of Bush 50 percent to 31 percent.