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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (62429)	10/23/2004 2:59:22 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

"The scariest thing about writing a campaign column is that on the eve of an election you are expected to make a prediction." He's right about that. As the director of the Rat Poll, I know it takes a lot of guts to do this. Rat After 18 Months of Watching, It's Time to Predict By Craig Crawford, CQ Columnist Published: October 22, 2004 It's John Kerry's to lose. No flip-flopping here. I think the Democratic nominee will win the presidential election on Nov. 2. I don't even think it will take weeks of recounting to confirm this. The scariest thing about writing a campaign column is that on the eve of an election you are expected to make a prediction. What good is spending much of the past year-and-a-half on the road covering a campaign if you cannot offer an educated guess about the outcome? Forgive me if I take a pass on the mind-numbing chess game of mixing and matching "battleground" states to reach a mathematical conclusion. The final phase of this campaign is like projecting the path of a hurricane. I cannot predict its longitude and latitude on Election Day, but I do see the momentum headed in Kerry's direction. For all of President Bush's valiant efforts to make this campaign a referendum on his challenger's character, it is turning into what the nature of politics demands: a referendum on the incumbent's performance. You will notice a bit of hedging in my opening line. Yes, the Massachusetts senator could find a way to lose. He sometimes has a tin ear for the effect of his words, such as when he said he voted for funding the Iraq war before he voted against it. Not knowing how ridiculous that would sound demonstrated just why he might falter again in the final days. Putting Kerry's clumsy campaign style aside, I am predicting his victory based on the overwhelming mood for change I've seen around the country. A Fresh Start? I could see this mood in the nods of agreement in an airport lounge recently as a television news clip showed Kerry saying the country needs "a fresh start." This could be the most powerful phrase in Kerry's arsenal during the closing days. Calling for "a fresh start" sounds like a phrase that was poll tested with a battery of focus groups, which is why it works. It is a simple notion conveyed by simple words. The need for a fresh start is the least provocative argument that Kerry offers for replacing Bush after one term, and yet it might be the most persuasive. Kerry's more provocative language sets the bar too high for voters to come his way. When Kerry portrays the president as either deceitful or incompetent, he delights those partisan Democrats who despise Bush. But most voters say they like the president, even if they lean against voting for him. The "fresh start" message gives those voters a reason to vote for Kerry without joining the hate-Bush camp. No matter what one thinks about the status of Iraq, jobs or health care, who can argue that a "fresh start" would be so bad? Bush could have blunted this message. He could have signaled his own plans for a new beginning in his second term. And there is still time for him to do so. The president did not need to admit mistakes to show a willingness to try something new in Iraq, for instance. Hints about changing faces in a second Bush administration would help. The White House could have floated a few popular names, maybe even a Democrat or two, as candidates to replace Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld, in particular. Instead, Bush has stubbornly entrenched himself, refusing to acknowledge any need for change in his policies on any front, domestic or international. Ceding the change vote to Kerry could end up being the Bush camp's biggest mistake. It is the dark side of their effective attacks on Kerry as a flip-flopper. The president is so determined to contrast his certitude against Kerry's vacillation that he has left himself no room to appeal to voters who would like to see him make adjustments. Bush would risk looking like a flip-flopper himself if he hinted at planning to try something different in Iraq, to cite the most politically important example, or if he eased off tax cuts so that he could slow the rise of federal budget deficits. Many of Bush's most ardent supporters would have welcomed a bit of flexibility. Fiscal conservatives are outraged at the overspending in Bush's first term. Yet he barely acknowledges the problem. Or, More of the Same? Bush is stuck in a world of "more of the same," the other obviously poll-tested phrase that Kerry uses to great effect. There was a moment at the Republican National Convention when it seemed his campaign would finally center itself on a new second-term agenda. On the day of the president's acceptance speech his aides released a massive document filled with proposals for the next four years. There were no far-reaching promises. Mostly, it was a litany of small programmatic changes, but it seemed to be the basis for a forward-looking message. But we never heard much more about it. It turned out that conservatives gave the Bush camp such a beating for spending increases in the lengthy document that his advisers backed away from it. Forgoing a definitive message of new ideas for a second term makes it difficult for the president to end this campaign by promising a bright future. Instead, his re-election is staked on fear of the future, arguing that a Kerry presidency would put our lives in jeopardy. Without a forward promise of modest change, Bush allows voters to conclude that keeping him in the White House only brings more of the same. A fresh start is not much of a mandate for a new president, but it is enough for Kerry to slip into the White House. Craig Crawford is a special contributor to Congressional Quarterly and a news analyst for MSNBC, CNBC and "The Early Show" on CBS. He can be reached at (202) 419-8644 or at ccrawford@cq.com. nytimes.com

To: stockman_scott who wrote (62429)	10/23/2004 3:02:43 PM
From: elpolvo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

s2@WillKerryWinNewMexico?.com- yep. i've already promised you NM. joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com Friday, October 22, 2004 Yet Another NM Prez Poll; This One Has Them Talking, Plus: Bush & Kerry Back to NM, And: Kate's Take: Spotlight On The Trib's Kate Nelson There seems to be a Prez poll for everyone this year. Kerry supporters were buoyed by the ARG survey yesterday showing their man two points ahead and now Bush backers are exulting over the five point spread they have over Kerry in the latest Mason-Dixon survey taken this week. Bush--49%, Kerry--44% and 6% undecided. (MOE +-4%) But five points sounds like a lot so we checked in with a couple of our polling experts. They raised questions about the Mason-Dixon results. "The survey was not done from a list of registered NM voters. They called at random and then asked whomever answered if they were a registered voter and what party and ethnic group they belonged to. Obviously, there is more room for error with that method." Our polling pundit also questioned Mason-Dixon for only weighting the poll with 10% independents. "It should be around 14%, like it was in ARG." he said. Summing up all recent polls, in ARG it's a two point Kerry lead, the ABQ Journal has a three point Kerry advantage, the Mason-Dixon has a five point Bush lead and Gallup with a three point Bush edge. STILL KERRY The Mason-Dixon survey has not shaken my belief that Kerry is currently leading here and is poised for a win in the 10,000 vote area. The key is his eight point lead in Bernalillo County in the Sanderoff/Journal survey. That's why Heather Wilson has been in a much tighter Congressional race this time with Richard Romero. The Prez must improve his standing in NM's largest county. But the Bush campaign apparently believes ABQ is gone and they must boost turnout in conservative rural areas. They could do it, but through the decades that has not been the case. HE'S BACK It could be his last visit to NM before Election Day and John Kerry will spend it with Native Americans in ABQ Tuesday. If they show up in force on Election Day, minority voters can easily push Kerry over the top here. But it's still an if. The Senator will also visit Las Cruces Saturday. The campaign hopes the two visits finally nail down stubborn New Mexico as much bigger battleground prizes are at stake back East. Kerry has visited plenty and pumped enough money in here. Now, it's up to Big Bill to marshall the organization and deliver the win. LATE BREAKING: BUSH BACK From the Las Cruces Sun-News: President Bush will return to southern New Mexico with a stop Sunday in Alamogordo, Otero County Republican Party officials announced Thursday. The exact time and place of Bush’s visit were still being determined Thursday.Tickets to attend the Alamogordo rally will be distributed from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. today and Saturday at the Otero County Fairgrounds ticket booth on a first-come, first-served basis. More than 10,000 tickets have been printed for the event. KATE'S TAKE In the final days of Campaign 04' we go to the first string. Kate Nelson, managing editor of the ABQ Tribune, has been there and done that, having covered every major state race since the late 80's. I asked her to give "NM Politics With Joe Monahan" readers an exclusive insider take. What will the Wilson-Romero race turn on? "Sadly, it will turn on the effectiveness of negative campaigning. The two have spent next to no time illuminating their own positions. Voters are pretty disgusted. The other element at work is Kerry coattails. If he beats Bush by at least 5 points, that could push Romero close. I've been deeply disappointed. They're fundamentally decent human beings, but you couldn't tell it by their campaigns. On the NM Prez battle--"It's looking good for Kerry. I haven't seen what Bush/Cheney are doing to reach undecideds; their NM events are so staged,strictly firing up the base. Kerry's Old Town morning a few months back was a stroke of genius. I wish we'd seen more of that from both campaigns--candidates getting the feel of a community. Is gender playing a role in the NM campaign? "You mean, like, is THIS finally the year of the woman? Ha! I don't think so. There isn't an unusually large group of women candidates. Maybe it's just the year of the attack ad. Oh, wait, that was every other election, too. Upsets in the legislature, etc.? "Maybe a few, but honestly, I hate to call races. I mean, would you bother watching the Lobos if you knew ahead of time that they were going to lose? You're right Kate. Suspense is what makes our beloved game of La Politica worth playing and there's no shortage of that in the down-to-the-wire campaign of 2004. ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty & NM Legislative Reports. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Posted by: Joe / 10/22/2004 12:02:25 AM