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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (24783)	10/25/2004 12:09:04 AM
From: Elroy Jetson	Respond to of 306849

I'm betting on stagnation or deflation while my parents are betting on inflation - although they claim they're not. They both say they think inflation is a very bad thing, but they'll be as rich as Croesus if that bad thing happens. It's the same sort of double-talk you hear from Milton Friedman and his deranged apostle Ben Bernanke. It's interesting, for all of the risk they have taken over the years and the ups and downs, I think they might have less money in real terms than they inherited. Of course they have more actual money than they inherited in paper terms - it's just that the paper money is worth so much less than it used to be. I'm too gun shy at the moment to move into long term bonds. If I did, would I be better off in Australian or U.S. long-term bonds? Lots of decisions ahead. Initially I was expecting a much larger decline in the stock market, hoping I could buy back in at a major discount - larger in scale than the sell-off sparked by the Asia Crisis or the earlier panic in 1982? But we all know the actual decline has left the market over-priced with probably a long boring decline for years ahead. On the other hand my great-grandmother had a fortune in long term bonds issued by the Bank of France, which became worthless around 1919 shortly after the Czar fell. (The Bank of France had lent their money out on mortgages backed by Russian land.) Sovereign debt is safer, just so long as you don't choose the wrong sovereign. Luckily she had sold some of her jewelry to build a home and buy some other real estate in Southern California. With no debts, that kept her family going during the Great Depression. .